‘Shanghai to replace Paris as growth centre’

Bloomberg

Shanghai will replace Paris in the top five of global city economies by 2035 in a sign the balance of the world’s economy is shifting east, according to an Oxford
Economics study.
The top 780 cities in the world, which already produce almost
60 percent of global activity, will add almost half a billion more people and $32 trillion in output over roughly the next couple of decades, Mark Britton, an economist at Oxford Economics, said.
The eye-popping headline figures mask significant disparities between cities studied, Britton wrote. Among the big winners: emerging Asia, with three other Chinese cities entering into the top 10: Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. “The world’s urban centre will continue to shift eastwards, particularly as growth in a number of cities in the West is likely to be constrained by aging, and in some cases, declining, population,” Britton wrote.
The changing power balance is shown by the forecast that the combined output of Asian cities will overtake that of urban centres in Europe and North America in about a decade, according to Britton. A decade ago, the cities in the West claimed twice the aggregate GDP of those in Asia.
Non-Chinese Asian cities will also post impressive growth, with places like Mumbai and Kuala Lumpur adding $4.7 trillion in GDP through 2035. But China’s urban star power will increase by about $14 trillion over that period, and 15 of its cities will join the top-100 rankings.
The estimates are based on constant 2015 prices and exchange rates. Santiago and Rio de Janeiro will drop out of the top-100 rankings, and while the
Middle East looks to be making gradual improvement.