Saudi signals deeper cuts after deal with non-OPEC countries

Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia signaled it’s ready to cut oil production more than expected, a surprise announcement made minutes after Russia and several non-other OPEC countries pledged to curb output next year. Taken together, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’s first deal with its rivals since 2001 and the Saudi comments represent a forceful effort by producers to wrest back control of the global oil market, depressed by persistent oversupply and record inventories.
“This is shock and awe by Saudi Arabia,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “It shows the commitment of Riyadh to rebalance the market and should end concerns about OPEC delivering the deal.” Oil prices have surged more than 15 percent since OPEC announced Nov. 30 it will cut production for the first time in eight years, rising this week briefly above $55. The price rise has propelled the shares of energy groups from Exxon Mobil Corp. to shale firms such as Continental Resources Inc.
Riyadh agreed with OPEC on Nov. 30 to cut its production to 10.06 million barrels a day, down from a record high of nearly 10.7 million barrels in July. “I can tell you with absolute certainty that effective Jan. 1 we’re going to cut and cut substantially to be below the level that we have committed to on Nov. 30,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said after today’s meeting. The Saudi minister said he was ready to cut below the psychologically significant level of 10 millions barrels a day — a level it has sustained since March 2015 — depending on market conditions.
Al-Falih made his announcement after non-OPEC countries agreed to reduce production by 558,000 barrels a day, suggesting he had been waiting for the deal before committing to further cuts. The non-OPEC reduction is equal to the anticipated demand growth next year in China and India, according to data from the International Energy Agency. The OPEC and non-OPEC pact encompasses countries that pump 60 percent of the world’s oil, but excludes major producers such as the US, China, Canada, Norway and Brazil.
“The deal speaks volumes about the Saudi commitment to rebalance the market,” said Yasser Elguindi, a veteran OPEC watcher with consultant Medley Global Advisors. “No one is talking any more about $30 a barrel oil.”