Russia worried Maduro’s grip may slip in Venezuela

Bloomberg

After pledging full support for the embattled regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Russia is starting to show signs of doubt about his ability to survive an opposition challenge.
While Moscow hasn’t given up its public backing of Maduro, it increasingly recognizes that the disastrous state of Venezuela’s economy is inexorably draining what remains of his public support, said two people close to the Kremlin. At the same time, the army’s reluctance to crack down on its own citizens limits his ability to use force to crush the challenge to his rule, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. “Unfortunately, time isn’t on Maduro’s side,’’ said Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the international affairs committee in the upper house of Russia’s parliament. “In a situation of worsening economic crisis, the mood in society can quickly turn against him.’’
Moscow remains wary of Maduro’s US-backed opponents but is acutely aware how few levers it has to rescue a client who’s too deep in financial distress for the Kremlin to bail him out and too far away for Russia to deploy significant military force to shore him up.
For years, Russia along with China has been a major backer of Maduro, with ties dating back to 1999 when his predecessor Hugo Chavez came to power. It extended billions of dollars in loans and investments, most by state-owned oil giant Rosneft PJSC, and is scrambling to protect its interests as US President Donald Trump steps up efforts to oust the Venezuelan leader, crippling the country’s economy with sanctions. Despite the history of support, Moscow has ruled out providing new money to an ally that’s had to have past debts restructured.
Russia, which is also a major arms exporter to Venezuela, is “very, very worried” about the political situation in the country, Dmitry Shugaev, head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation told Kommersant newspaper. “But we are not inclined to curtail cooperation.” The latest warning sign for the Kremlin was the recognition by key European powers of National Assembly leader Juan Guaido as president after Maduro refused to call new elections. This followed the defection of an air force general and Maduro’s failed bid to ship 20 tons of gold out of the Latin American nation to raise much-needed cash.
Silent Putin Though lesser officials have backed the Venezuelan leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no public statement in support of Maduro since the crisis erupted beyond a phone call to him on January 24.
Venezuela is of limited strategic importance to Russia, though it offers symbolic significance in demonstrating Putin’s reach into a region seen as Washington’s backyard. Russia doesn’t have the capacity to send forces there as it did to support Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, limiting itself to publicity stunts like a December visit by two nuclear-capable bombers.
Talks between the Venezuelan government and opposition are the only way out of the crisis “otherwise, there’ll simply be the sort of regime change that the West has engaged in many times,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Tajikistan.
While Russian officials have publicly ruled out talks with the opposition, contacts are likely taking place behind the scenes, according to analysts in Moscow.
“Today Maduro is in control of the country but with every day he has less leverage as his legitimacy is contested,’’ said Dmitry Rozental, an expert on Venezuela at Moscow’s state-funded Institute for Latin American Studies.