To say that Venezuela is in acute crisis would be an understatement. It is staring at a massive collapse that is getting harder to prevent by the day. The country’s economy is in a free-fall amid the financial and political commotion. In 2016, its GDP will contract 10% and inflation accelerate to around 700%. Its gold reserves are shrinking too. The holdings slumped in May. The declining oil prices have added to the country’s economic woes. The state-owned oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) intends to swap its short-term debt for obligations with longer maturities.
The economic tailspin has forced the socialist government of Nicolas Maduro to borrow money from the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR). FLAR gave approval to a three-year loan of $482.5 million on Friday. However, the loan is not adequate to solve the widening balance of payments deficit.
The government has slashed imports of even the most essential items and imposed a state of economic emergency. Venezuelans have been forced to resort to rationing of food and electricity. They made huge lines to get stuffs of bare necessity from Colombian stores, when the border was opened for two days recently. It seemed like a scramble out there!
Economic hardships that the country is facing require concrete and long-term measures. Funds from bodies like FLAR will help in the short-term. The government has to look at the distant future for recovery of the economy. But that is
becoming increasingly difficult for the policymakers due to the looming constitutional paralysis the nation is reeling from.
The opposition has called for a recall referendum against Maduro, who is resisting the move tooth and nail. The electoral authorities will take a final call on the issue on Tuesday. With conditions attached, if the referendum is okayed it would be a lengthy process. In case the government tries to ban dissent, there will be violent fallout as it happened earlier when many protesting students had to pay with their lives. Apparently, only when the recall vote goes through can the political stalemate come to an end. Maduro’s government has been accused of abuses and tortures. If there is any iota of truth in the accusations, these should be stopped because they will push the country into deeper chaos and uncertainty.
Banning Venezuela from OAS or suspending it from the Latin American bloc Mercosur will make the situation more volatile. If that’s done, the voice of the citizens would be muted too. At this crucial juncture, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and other leading regional leaders should hold an emergency meeting with Maduro’s government to find a way out of the deplorable economic and constitutional situation while convincing it to pave a peaceful course. The Vatican has already
extended its hand to mediate. Any further deterioration of law and order will
aggravate the instability.
A recent poll found that 64% of the Venezuelans would vote to remove Maduro. Removing Maduro would help only when the public comes together to ensure that the country gets back on its feet. It is the plebeian power which can shake off Venezuela’s economic doomsday scenario.