North Korea signals nuclear test, exploiting US-Russia rift

Bloomberg

North Korea looks set to detonate its first nuclear bomb in more than four years, as the US’s sanctions, disputes with Russia and China make further United Nations penalties against the country unlikely.
Workers have been observed digging a new passageway at the Punggye-ri site where North Korea conducted all six of its previous nuclear tests, South Korean media including the DongA Ilbo newspaper reported. A test could come as soon as next month, when Kim Jong-un is preparing to mark the 110th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather, state founder Kim Il Sung, the paper said, citing a security official it didn’t identify.
The reports came as Kim delivered a fresh warning to the US that he planned to develop more “powerful striking capabilities,” the official Korean Central News Agency reported. The weapons would make North Korea more secure and “control all threats and blackmail by the imperialists,” it reported him as saying.
While Kim has been signalling plans to resume major weapons tests for more than two years, the US’s campaign to punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine has reduced the risk of getting with sanctions for such provocations. Any additional measures from the UN Security Council would require support from Russia, as well as China, which has led the criticism of Washington’s efforts to squeeze Moscow economically.
Their reluctance was clear during a Security Council meeting to discuss North Korea’s first launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile since November 2017. Russia’s representative, Anna Evstigneeva, rejected US calls for what she described as “turning the sanctions screw” against North Korea and advocated for a resolution drafted with China that would prioritise negotiations.
“North Korea almost certainly views the rifts between the US and Russia, and the US and China, as a golden opportunity to conduct longer-range missile — and probably even nuclear — tests,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a non-resident fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center.
The response to the ICBM test shows how much the geopolitical landscape has shifted since 2017, when former US President Donald Trump threatened to unleash “fire and fury” against North Korea and secured China and Russia’s support for tough UN sanctions against the regime. Trump subsequently launched a trade war against China and opened direct talks with Kim, prompting President Xi Jinping in Beijing to repair ties with Pyongyang, as well.

The Firing Line
The war in Ukraine has complicated things further, as President Joe Biden’s administration frames his showdown with Russia’s Vladimir Putin as part of a global
battle between democracy and autocracy.
At the same time, the conflict has underscored the value of nuclear weapons in deterring direct military action by the US and its allies.
North Korea was one of five UN member states last month to vote against a resolution condemning the invasion.