North Korea may test ICBM this week, Yonhap says

Bloomberg

North Korea could launch an ICBM as soon as this week, the Yonhap News Agency reported, in what would be its most serious provocation in five years as South Korea undergoes a presidential transition and the world focuses on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
South Korea and the US have detected signs of an imminent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, Yonhap reported, citing unidentified South Korean government officials. The US said that recent North Korean launches were intended
to test elements of an ICBM that weapons experts believe could be armed with multiple warheads in a bid to overwhelm defenses.
North Korea was most likely to test its ICBM from a transporter-erector launcher, and fire the missile in a lofted trajectory, Yonhap said. This would give spy satellites less time to detect a test, as opposed to the more time-consuming process of firing off an ICBM from a launchpad.
North Korea hasn’t test-launched an ICBM since November 2017, which at the time was a major breakthrough in Kim’s effort to show he can threaten the entire US mainland. US officials have said the recent tests of suspected ICBM components point to a launch of the Hwasong-17, which is believed to be the world’s largest road-mobile missile of its kind. North Korea is banned by United Nations resolutions from conducting any ballistic missile tests.
Kim Jong-un’s regime willingness to ramp up tensions will test South Korea’s incoming president, Yoon Suk Yeol, while possibly giving Pyongyang greater leverage in any negotiations over sanctions choking his state’s paltry economy. Yoon — a conservative, who takes office in May — has pledged to advance a hawkish line on foreign policy that would bolster the alliance with the US.
“Kim can both set the tone for inter-Korean dynamics and gauge the incoming Yoon administration’s threshold for North Korean provocations,” said Soo Kim, a policy analyst with the Rand Corp who previously worked at the Central
Intelligence Agency. “And depending on Yoon’s response, Kim will either temper or dial up his aggression.”
There were indications before South Korea’s tightly contested election that Kim Jong-un had put his country on a path to resume nuclear and ICBM testing. The change in leadership from the accommodative stance of outgoing President Moon Jae-in to Yoon, could make it easier for Kim’s propaganda apparatus to sell the escalation to the domestic audience.
South Korea and the US are looking to stage joint military drills starting from the second or third week of April, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper reported on Monday, citing an unidentified Defense Ministry official. The joint drills were scaled down in recent years under Moon in a bid to help diplomacy, after North Korea had decried the exercises for decades, calling them a prelude to an invasion and nuclear war.
In addition, South Korea has detected signs that North Korea is working to restore demolished underground tunnels at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site.