Nigeria’s postponement throws election into disarray

Bloomberg

The last-minute delay of Nigeria’s general elections by a week carries dangers for both President Muhammadu Buhari and his main opponent, Atiku Abubakar.
While the electoral commission said the postponement just over five hours before polls were due to open Saturday was for logistical reasons, it reinforces opposition criticisms that state institutions under Buhari aren’t independent and are incompetent. The threat to Abubakar’s campaign is that the delay will discourage voters in areas where he needs a high turnout to win. Millions of Nigerians had traveled to their hometowns to vote.
The decision early Saturday may heighten tensions in what has been a tight race in Africa’s biggest democracy between Buhari, a 76-year-old former military ruler, and businessman and ex-vice president Abubakar, 72. Analysts were split down the middle over who would win. Both Buhari’s All Progressives Congress and Abubakar’s People’s Democratic Party condemned the delay.
“There is a possibility that popular anger and the manner of the postponement could galvanize more people to come out to vote,” said Cheta Nwanze, head of research at SBM Intelligence in Lagos, the commercial capital. “If there is a higher turnout then, the PDP will win the election. But if the turnout is successfully repressed, the APC will win.”
An expectation that the vote would go smoothly bouyed Nigerian equities and bonds in recent weeks. The stock market is up 7.1 percent this month, the second-best performance globally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors may turn bearish next week if they think the delay was down to political machinations, according to Robert Omotunde, head of investment research at Lagos-based Afrinvest West Africa Ltd.
Nigerian elections are regularly postponed. A week before the 2015 presidential and parliamentary vote, it was moved back by more than a month. Buhari went on to win and become the first opposition candidate to take power through the ballot box in Africa’s biggest oil producer. The vote four years before was delayed after balloting had already started.
The postponement “will almost certainly create an environment of heightened anxiety and distrust,’’ Ronak Gopaldas and Ryan Cummings, directors of Cape Town-based Signal Risk, said in an emailed response to questions. “Allegations of vote-rigging and electoral manipulation will inevitably follow, with opposition threats to boycott the vote possible.” US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo spoke to Buhari and Abubakar, telling them that “the conduct of the elections is critical for the future of democracy in Nigeria and across Africa,” according to the State Department. Polling centers were initially meant to open Saturday at 8 a.m., with more than 84 million registered voters across 36 states and the federal capital, Abuja.
“Couldn’t they have told us weeks ago?” said Amina Usman, a voter in Abuja. “Why did they take this long? We will go out next week en masse and we will cast our votes.’’
Buhari was already in his home town of Daura, in Katsina state, where he was planning to vote, and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo had traveled to Lagos, Osinbajo’s spokesman Laolu Akande said on Twitter.
“This is truly disappointing, but the march to the next level continues,” Akande said in reference to their campaign slogan.