Nato boosts forces in east amid warnings on chemical incidents

Bloomberg

Nato agreed to boost its deployments in the eastern portion of the defense alliance, doubling the number of battle groups to eight, as the US said it is working with Nato to prepare for possible biological or nuclear incidents by Russia.
The world’s leading developed nations plan to warn President Vladimir Putin against deploying such weapons amid his stalled invasion of Ukraine, as Nato implored China not to provide economic or military support to Moscow.
“We have a responsibility to ensure the conflict does not escalate further because this would be even more dangerous and even more devastating,” Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters. The alliance extended his term for another year, through September 2023, even though he had been selected to head Norway’s central bank.
A senior US official said that Washington is working with allies on preparation and deterrence postures over Russian weapons of mass destruction, as well as on potential medical and other countermeasures to help Ukraine.
The official spoke as US President Joe Biden met with Nato leaders in Brussels, one day after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan downplayed the risks of a nuclear attack.
Officials remain particularly concerned about a chemical incident. “Any use of chemical weapons will totally change
the nature of the conflict,” Stoltenberg said. “It will be a blatant violation of international law and it will have widespread consequences and of course be extremely dangerous.”
Biden noted that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed the Nato leaders by videoconference. “We will continue to support him and his government with significant, and increasing, amounts of security assistance to fight Russian aggression and uphold their right to self-defense,” he said.
Biden is in Brussels for a trio of summits with Nato, the Group of Seven and the European Union as world leaders display their unity in countering Russia’s invasion and try to come up with measure to cope with the economic fallout. G-7 leaders plan to say that they will continue to impose “severe consequences” on Russia by fully implementing the sanctions that countries have already imposed and stand ready to apply additional measures.
Russia has suffered punishing losses in the opening weeks of the conflict, with Nato estimates suggesting that at least 7,000 troops have died and noting the actual death toll could be as high as 15,000.

The U.K. defense ministry said that Russia is likely looking to mobilize its reservist and conscript manpower, as well as private military companies and foreign mercenaries.
Ukraine, meanwhile, showed an unexpected unity and strength over the past month despite severe attacks against civilian targets and as millions of people fled their homes. Zelenskiy has said Russian soldiers have killed more Ukrainian civilians than soldiers. The images of Moscow’s siege of cities like Mariupol have only galvanized Ukrainians to stage protests against Russian troops.
“We still have a very difficult period ahead of us,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in Facebook post marking the first month of the war. “The Russian war machine will not stop until it is drowned in the blood of its own soldiers. The Russian society is already experiencing some of the consequences but is intimidated and passive.”
Ukraine will fight on as it will “not let anyone take our state away from us,” he added. “The state which generations of Ukrainians dreamed of, fought and died for.”
Despite the heavy losses, Putin has shown no sign of reversing of course, even as the flurry of economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., EU and the U.K. take an increasing toll. There’s growing evidence of shortages of goods in Russia as consumers start to feel the impact of sweeping sanctions.
The U.S. warnings on chemical and nuclear incidents suggests growing concern that Putin will lash out with his military suffering heavy losses. Biden, speaking at the White House Wednesday, said there’s “a real threat” that Russia will use chemical weapons.
NATO officials are studying different scenarios around Russia’s possible use of chemical agents as weapons of mass destruction, NATO officials said. A so-called false flag event could involve an accident on a chemical plant given the significant amounts of ammonia, chlorine and nitrates in Ukraine that are used in its agricultural industry.
Another scenario considers Russia using a chemical weapon that could involve a highly toxic agent delivered across a wide area, the officials said. These kinds of attacks, however, would allow immediate attribution and it’s unclear whether Russia would want to avoid that, they added.
Sullivan suggested Wednesday the U.S. doesn’t have specifics on whether Putin’s planning has changed.
“We haven’t seen anything that’s made us adjust our posture — our nuclear posture, but it’s, of course, something that we will have to continue to stay in close consultation with allies and partners on, as well as communicate directly to the Russians on,” Sullivan said.
We face a new reality for our security due to #Russia’s illegal invasion of #Ukraine.
The G-7 leaders also plan to pledge help for nations as they try to wean themselves off their dependence on Russian oil.
“We will ensure secure alternative and sustainable supplies, and act in solidarity and close coordination in the case of possible supply disruptions,” the draft says. The leaders also call on oil- and gas-producing nations to increase deliveries.
The U.S. and EU are expected to announce a deal on Friday aimed at slashing Europe’s dependence on Russia energy.