Lebanon elections under way with billions in funds at stake

Bloomberg

Lebanon is holding its first parliamentary elections in nine years, a pivotal moment for the country as it tries to ease a crippling debt burden and avoid being dragged deeper into some of the Middle East’s escalating crises.
Polls opened on Sunday morning under a new law based on proportional representation that’s meant to more accurately represent Lebanon’s complex sectarian demographics. With few expecting major changes to the delicate balance of power, the post-ballot focus will be on building a cabinet able to carry out measures sought by donors, a complicated task in a country where divisions have stymied reforms for decades.
“Irrespective of who wins the elections, Lebanon will face hurdles implementing reforms,” said Hani Sabra, founder of Alef Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. Official results will be released on May 7, according to ballot observers.
In order to receive $11 billion pledged at an April conference in France, the incoming government will have to take steps to control the world’s third-biggest debt burden, including cuts to public spending and a crackdown on corruption.
Making the challenges more daunting is a heated confrontation between Israel and Iran, one that could degenerate into a war involving Hezbollah, the Shiite armed group backed by Tehran and which plays a key role in Lebanese politics.

Refugees
Hezbollah is the only group that kept its weapons after the end of Lebanon’s civil war. Along with its partners, Hezbollah could win about a third of the 128 seats in parliament, giving it the “power to block decisions,” said Rosanna Bou Monsef, a political commentator for the An-Nahar daily. Still, Hezbollah’s leaders might downplay electoral successes that could “drive investors away,” she said.
There are signs that’s already happening. “The new law allows diversity to be represented,” Hezbollah lawmaker Hasan Fadlallah said in an interview. “Lebanon’s makeup is sectarian and doesn’t allow the defeat of one at the expense of another.”
Elections were last held in 2009 and parliament has since extended its own term twice, citing security concerns related to the Syrian conflict — which has forced 1.5 million refugees into Lebanon — and claims by Christian groups and others that they were under-represented under the old vote rules. Crowds greeted candidates making their way to the polling stations as voting got underway on Sunday. Waving blue balloons and party flags, supporters of PM Saad Hariri surrounded him as he made his way to vote.
Under the power-sharing agreement that ended the civil war, Lebanon’s prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, the president a Maronite Christian and parliament speaker a Shiite Muslim.