Kim’s regime baffles world with contradictory signals

Bloomberg

What’s going on with Kim Jong-un? Is he sick? Worried about Covid-19? Consumed by an economic crisis? Battling internal threats?
Perhaps the North Korean leader is biding his time until the US presidential election? Or maybe he’s playing the same game of threats, reconciliation and retreat that has kept his family in charge of the secretive state since the 1940s?
All those scenarios have been floated to explain months of surprises and intrigue from Pyongyang, including stubborn — but so-far-unsubstantiated — rumours that the 36-year-old leader is unwell. The developments have underscored how little the world knows about North Korea, and left even many professional observers questioning how they go about interpreting Kim’s actions.
“We need to check our assumptions about the leadership,” said Soo Kim, a Rand Corp policy analyst who previously worked at the Central Intelligence Agency.
“Perhaps we are imposing our own expectations and habitual knowledge about the North Korean regime on the current situation. And if these expectations are false, then we risk drawing faulty or erroneous conclusions about the regime.”
Indeed, Kim is behaving in ways that have defied expectations. After making economic development his central policy focus in 2018, he acknowledged last week that people’s living standards have “not been improved remarkably.” He has attended less than a third of the number of public events as he had at this time in 2019 and earlier this year missed birthday celebrations for his late grandfather, state founder Kim Il Sung.
After promising to unveil a “new strategic weapon” and carrying out a record number of ballistic missile launches last year, North Korea has dramatically scaled back weapon tests in 2020. He’s even given his younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, a more prominent role in relations with the US and South Korea, an unprecedented delegation of power that risks elevating a potential rival from the family’s so-called Mount Paektu bloodline.
Kim Yo Jong proved her hard-line credentials in June by delivering a stern rebuke to Seoul before North Korea blew up a $15 million liaison office South Korean President Moon Jae-in helped establish on the northern side of the border in 2018. Since then, North Korea has been unusually quiet, foregoing even its standard criticism of US-South Korean military drills that started this month.
Illustrating the struggle to read the signals, South Korean lawmakers said after a briefing by spy agency officials last week that Kim Jong-un had delegated some authority to his sister to relieve “stress,” adding that she was running “every aspect” of state affairs.
The lawmakers held another briefing shortly after to play down their remarks, saying they were only sharing the spy agency’s interpretation.
State media released what appeared to be fresh images of Kim on Wednesday, publishing photos of him leading a Politburo meeting, dressed in summer white.
As usual, North Korea’s propaganda machine has said nothing about Kim’s health or succession plans.