India looks set to weather global bond rout with record reserves

Bloomberg

India’s record foreign-exchange reserves and a rare current-account surplus look set to cushion the nation’s currency and bonds from a global surge in interest rates.
While the central bank does have its hands full managing the government’s large debt issuance, strategists see the country in a much stronger financial position now than it was during previous bouts of turmoil in world markets. They cite the rupee, which has eked out a gain this year, defying the slump seen in most emerging-market currencies, and relative stability of India’s bonds.
With reserves closing in on $600 billion and a current-account surplus forecast to exceed 1% of GDP, talk of India as one of five fragile emerging markets has mostly faded away. When the description was coined during the taper tantrum in 2013, inflation in India was running at around 10%.
Data due on March 12 is projected to show consumer prices rising at less than half that level, and well below the 6.6% average of last year. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year bond yields have largely been capped since last year by the central bank and the nation’s stocks continue to see foreign inflows.
“India’s markets are likely to be relatively immune to higher US yields in the weeks ahead,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief EM Asia and Europe strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “India has been a key beneficiary of equity inflows into Asia and we do not see outflows persisting.”
Ahead of the CPI figures, here is a series of charts highlighting points of strength in India that have been cited by analysts.
Indian stocks attracted about $6 billion of foreign inflows this year, highest in emerging Asia after China, and well above those of country’s erstwhile “Fragile Five” peers. The prospect of strong economic growth has been underpinned by an early start to India’s coronavirus inoculation campaign, aided by domestically produced vaccines.
India’s central bank has added $127 billion to its foreign-exchange kitty since the beginning of January last year, the biggest increase among major Asian economies. At the current rate of accumulation, India is on course to pass Russia and take fourth place in global rankings for reserves, behind China, Japan and Switzerland. This large well of reserves should give authorities fire power to deal with any potential capital outflows driven by external shocks, according to Kaushik Das, chief India economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Mumbai.
India is expected to post a current-account surplus of 1.1% of GDP in the current fiscal year, along with a balance-of-payments surplus of $96 billion, according to Emkay Global Financial Serviced Ltd.
India’s sovereign bonds offer more stable returns than many others in emerging markets, as measured against annualized 60-day volatility in benchmark 10-year securities. The Reserve Bank of India has made over $41 billion of bond purchases this fiscal year and plans to buy at least that amount next year, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, which should help to curb gains in yields.
India’s economy is projected by the IMF to grow 11.5% in 2021, a pace that is likely to be the fastest of any major economy, which also augurs well for inflows and the rupee.