Immigration, world’s challenge of century

The future of American democracy may be decided by what happens on the Mexican border this year. That is to say, if the large constituency fearful about migration is unconvinced that President Joe Biden’s administration is implementing credible policies to control it, Trumpism could resurge big-time, at the midterm elections and thereafter.
Nor is this solely, or even principally, a problem for the US. In almost every advanced democracy, alarm about immigration is a major political issue. At next year’s election, it could make the right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen president of France. It contributed largely, perhaps decisively, to Britain’s exit from the European Union and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ascent to power. In countries as far apart as Australia and Sweden, established populations are troubled and divided by how many new people are enough.
“International migration has become increasingly weaponised,” says the United Nations 2020 World Migration Report. “It is being used by some as a political tool, undermining democracy and inclusive civic engagement.”
Whereas in 2000 there were estimated to be 150 million migrants — people living outside their country of birth — today the figure is 272 million and rising. In 1970, there were fewer than 10 million migrants in the US, which is overwhelmingly the global destination of choice; today there are 44 million. In Europe, there are 82 million migrants, representing a 10% rise since 2015.
And many, many more are coming, especially from Africa. There are estimated to be more than one million currently transiting to reach wealthy countries. “Migration from North Africa to Europe continues to be a defining feature of the migration dynamics of the region,” says the UN report.
Every developed nation has some sort of immediate Band-Aid policy for managing migrants, mostly related to keeping out as many as possible. President Donald Trump built his wall; Britain seeks to exploit Brexit and the English Channel; Australia removes unauthorised entrants; France houses North Africans in squalid banlieues. What is lacking almost everywhere is governmental admission that this is not a short-term problem but a historic one. We are witnessing the beginning — and I use that word advisedly — of a vast movement, with boundless social implications, unless the nations of the rich world devise and implement far more imaginative and generous programs to reduce the incentives for people to quit their homelands in the poor world. Professor Michael Howard, among the most brilliant historians and thinkers of his generation, told me a few years ago: “The migration from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere that is now underway seems the most significant shift of populations since the early Christian era.” There seems every reason to suppose that he was right, and to highlight the importance and urgency of creating radical policies to address it.
Two important points should be made at the outset. First, the causes and implications of migration are many, and vary from one region to another. Second, the statistics given above and below derive from the UN, and are the best available. Like all large numbers, however, they represent only informed estimates — rough guides to trends. There is one obvious common strand in the journeys undertaken by so many millions, amid hardship and often at peril of their lives: Like migrants since the beginning of time, they hope to better themselves.

—Bloomberg