November, 2018

• 4 November

  German business confidence slumps

  Bloomberg German business sentiment deteriorated amid signs economic growth ground to a temporary halt and as risks surrounding a US-China trade spat and a disorderly Brexit increased. The Ifo institute’s gauge of corporate confidence fell to 102.8 in October after a drop to 103.7 in Sep- tember. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a decline to 103.2. ...

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• 4 November

  US payrolls beat forecast as wage gains hit 3.1%

  

  Bloomberg American workers enjoyed the biggest leap in pay since 2009 as job gains topped forecasts and the unemployment rate held at a 48-year low, a boost for President Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections and reason for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls rose 250,000 after a downwardly revised 118,000 gain, a Labour Department report ...

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• 4 November

  Wake up, UK! You need EU workers post-Brexit

  

  It’s been an unsettling couple of years for an estimated over 3.5 million European Union (EU) nationals who live and work in the UK. They’ve been victims of attacks, pawns in the Brexit negotiations and, more recently, an afterthought as an army of civil servants and consultants map out contingency plans for various Brexit scenarios. None of that augurs well ...

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• 4 November

  China fights the wrong yuan battle

  

  As the US dollar hits highs for the year, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) seems determined to hold the value of the yuan at seven to one, or stronger. This barrier holds little technical significance, but its psychological value and the central bank’s interest in holding the line are enormous. While it’s difficult to confirm, there’s strong evidence that ...

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• 4 November

  The Bank of Japan is too focused on 2 percent

  For the Bank of Japan (BOJ), failure can be an opportunity. Judging from the latest economic forecasts, the central bank is falling even farther behind on meeting its 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, its efforts to keep interest rates down are bringing the bond market to the verge of a coma. So great is the BOJ’s buying to support its ...

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• 4 November

  The slowdown in Europe should give the Fed pause

  The Federal Reserve’s confidence in its policy of interest-rate hikes was undoubtedly bolstered by last week’s report of a strong US economy. Look to Europe, however, and there are reasons to doubt that confidence. Economic growth in the Euro area was just 0.2 percent in the third quarter, it was reported, half of what had been forecast and in stark ...

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• 4 November

  Italy’s economic horror show is bound to get worse

  

  Italy’s horror show has just started – and it’s bound to get worse. The country’s economy stagnated in the third quarter, according to latest figures. The slowdown may be part of a wider trend: the euro zone economy expanded by a meager 0.2 percent in same three months. But it’s clear that the uncertainty which has accompanied the rise to ...

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• 4 November

  Kill IL&FS’ ‘culture’ by dismembering it

  

  The $12.8 billion bankruptcy of shadow lender Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd. (IL&FS) is starting to offer a glimmer of hope. It’s about time. Unexpected defaults by the financier, owner, and operator of Indian infrastructure assets have caused a liquidity squeeze, which has brought strained relations between the government and the central bank to breaking point. The good news ...

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• 4 November

  Stablecoin battle is for heart of internet economy

  

  The cryptocurrency market was roiled this month by something known as ‘stablecoins.’ These are an odd hybrid and among the most controversial and least-understood cryptocurrencies, but they’re important to the future of the internet economy. Up until October 10, the previous month had been quiet for cryptocurrencies. That’s when an intense burst of trading just before midnight New York time ...

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• 4 November

  Economy risks returning to sync, this time to downside

  

  Bloomberg The world’s major economies that entered 2018 accelerating in sync risk entering 2019 decelerating in sync. The shift is being led by China, where the economy’s weakest performance since 2009 is set to worsen unless a peace can be struck in the trade war with the US. Factory readings from Asia already show a fallout, with Taiwan, Thailand and ...

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