July, 2019

• 2 July

  The Fed should keep its tools in their place

  For the past year and a half, the US Federal Reserve has been paring down the multi-trillion-dollar portfolio of securities it purchased to support the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. Now, Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that the Fed might end this “quantitative tightening.” I think that would be a bad idea. When the Fed announced its last monetary-policy ...

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• 2 July

  Don’t give Donald Trump too much credit for a trade truce

  Relief that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping came to a trade truce will likely be short-lived. That’s because the two men have less command over the forces shaping global commerce than they might like to think. The decline of trade and manufacturing began in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, long before either leader came to power or ...

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• 2 July

  Jobs growth suggests US may already be in recession

  

  Employment is no doubt the best indicator of the recession I’ve been forecasting. The recent deceleration in US jobs growth suggest that the business downturn may already be underway. In terms of timeliness, payroll employment is superior among major economic statistics since it is monthly, not quarterly, and reported early, generally on first Friday of the month for data covering ...

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• 2 July

  Hong Kong protests feed a toxic brew for global luxury sales

  

  The protests in Hong Kong have, rightly, captured the world’s attention. If the demonstrations provoke no small amount of anxiety for onlookers living abroad, the strain on the city and its residents is surely acute. With streets getting closed and travel disrupted, businesses there will inevitably feel an effect. The world’s most famous luxury goods brands will not be immune. ...

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• 2 July

  Breaking up Facebook would make things worse

  

  The calls to break up Facebook — or at least to consider it — are growing louder by the day. On the left, Elizabeth Warren got on the antitrust bandwagon early with a plan for dismantling the company and other tech giants, while on the right Republican Senator Josh Hawley has mused, “Maybe we’d be better off if Facebook disappeared.” ...

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• 2 July

  US stocks fluctuate near records; gold rebounds

  

  Bloomberg US stocks fluctuated near all-time highs and Treasuries were little changed as attention turned to a slew of data later in the week that will influence the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The dollar weakened. The S&P 500 was little changed in the last full day of trading before an early close on July 3 and Thursday’s holiday. Data on ...

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• 2 July

  Indian stocks market extended gains ahead of budget, earnings

  

  Bloomberg Indian equities extended gains to a second day ahead of a federal budget due later this week that will give an indication of the government’s commitment to providing stimulus for a slowing economy. The advance was led by energy stocks, while drugmakers declined. The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.3 percent to 39,816.48 at the 3:30 pm close in ...

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• 2 July

  ECB sees no rush for July interest-rate cut

  

  Bloomberg European Central Bank (ECB) policy makers aren’t yet ready to rush into additional monetary stimulus at this month’s meeting, preferring instead to wait for more data on the economy, according to euro-area central-bank officials familiar with the matter. While Governing Council members agree that they could act on July 25 if the outlook deteriorates, they are currently leaning towards ...

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• 2 July

  ‘Polish lenders warn of $16b risk from EU ruling’

  

  Bloomberg Poland’s bank association has asked the government and industry regulators for help in case the European Union’s top court rules against the country’s lenders over foreign-currency mortgages, according to Puls Biznesu newspaper. The lobby’s initial estimate shows banks could face “huge” costs of at least 60 billion zloty ($16 billion), or about four years of industry profits, in a ...

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• 2 July

  Bankers across Denmark face fallout of scandal linked to overcharging

  

  Bloomberg Denmark is investigating whether banks besides Danske Bank A/S have recommended loss-making investment products to their clients. The country’s biggest lender fired one of its star executives after an internal review concluded that management was aware it was charging its retail customers too much for products that were likely to offer very low returns. The bank has pledged to ...

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