The prevailing view of earnings estimates is, to be blunt, dim. Many investors believe that companies and analysts conspire to keep estimates low to produce a “surprise” that drives the stock price higher. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the practice is widespread. The 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average met or beat the so-called consensus earnings estimate an average ...

There’s a nice Annette Idler item at the Monkey Cage on what’s at stake in Venezuela that answered some questions I’ve been thinking about as a non-specialist. Call me naive or a foolish optimist, but I suspect that the most likely end to the North Korea “crisis” is that it will fizzle out. Yes, Donald Trump is capable of irrational ...

With figures ranging from 33-year old Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg to 90-year-old Nobel Prize-winning economist Vernon Smith endorsing a universal basic income, the idea may soon enter the US political mainstream. But Americans are being sold on a dangerous version of the UBI, designed as a resource rent rather than a product of social consensus. Smith recently penned ...

Google is scrambling to distance itself from one of its engineers, who has gained infamy for publishing a 10-page criticism of the company’s “authoritarian” approach to achieving gender diversity. If the goal was to confirm the author’s thesis, Team Google is doing a great job. Titled “Google’s Ideological Echo Chamber,” the anonymous memo sets out a well-intentioned goal: Find non-discriminatory ...

Intervening 10 years ago to contain the damage from the banking system’s excessive risk-taking in mortgage-backed securities, the European Central Bank initiated what has proven to be an exceptional and prolonged involvement in markets by central banks. Much has changed since then, yet too much remains the same. The risk of unsettling financial instability, while lower, has morphed and migrated ...

DUBAI / Reuters Stock markets in the Middle East that are most exposed to foreign funds were the chief losers on Sunday, taking their cue from international bourses, where the mood was soured last week by growing tensions between the United States and North Korea. The worst performer in the region was Egypt’s blue-chip index, which dropped 1.4 percent as ...

Bloomberg The bond bulls in the $14 trillion Treasuries market didn’t expect — or want — to be proven right in quite this manner. Ramped-up bellicose rhetoric between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has stoked fears of imminent war, driving 10-year Treasury yields to the lowest level since June. Unless the two adversaries tone ...

Bloomberg If Mario Draghi is worried about the strength of the euro, he’s hiding it well for now. The European Central Bank president has shirked any invitation so far to bemoan the recent appreciation of the single currency in the style of his predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet, who used to complain about “brutal” moves that risk damping growth. Instead, Draghi has ...

Bloomberg Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Nestor Espenilla called for calm on Sunday after the peso fell to an almost 11-year low against the dollar last week, saying the currency isn’t expected to free fall given the nation’s strong economic fundamentals. “The peso is market-determined. It’s natural for it to show volatility as it adjusts to market conditions and all ...

Bloomberg Bank of England policy maker Michael Saunders said the decision to leave the European Union will have a long-term effect on the economy, though there’s still an argument to increase interest rates now. In an interview in the Evening Standard newspaper, the external Monetary Policy Committee member said Brexit probably means the economy will grow “several percentage points less ...