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China’s beltway bubble makes trade truce harder

Beyond retaliating with more tariffs and ads in Iowa newspapers, Chinese leaders have yet to devise a coherent strategy for contending with US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. Perhaps they can’t figure out what his divided and erratic administration actually wants. Or maybe they’re so dead set on pursuing their own economic agenda that they just don’t care. There ...

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IMF’s new chief economist a great choice

Having followed Gita Gopinath’s work closely for several years, I am delighted the International Monetary Fund appointed her to head its influential research department as chief economist. Gopinath, a professor of International Studies and Economics at Harvard University and co-director of the International Finance and Macroeconomics program at the National Bureau of Economic Research, brings expertise, insights and cognitive diversity ...

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Central banks can’t save you in the next recession

EWarning: Steep grade ahead. When the US economic expansion reverses, and when emerging markets start to slip faster, the world’s central banks may not be able to help. Of course, the next recession may not be another “great recession.” And I’m not predicting it’s imminent. For now the Federal Reserve is continuing to raise interest rates on schedule, and Europe ...

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The European court ruling that could break internet

Early next year, the European Union’s highest court is expected to rule on one of the internet’s most controversial topics: the right to be forgotten. The judges should curb their ambition, lest they open a can of worms that will spill well beyond Europe. The right, enshrined in privacy law, allows Europeans to demand that information about them be removed ...

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Last week showed that US is living under a volcano

America watched three searing versions of reality television this week. They all demonstrated that under the glare of the lights and the stress of questioning, character reveals itself. Christine Blasey Ford was a startlingly powerful witness before the Senate Judiciary Committee, in part because she had been unknown to most Americans before the cameras started rolling. Her answers were clear ...

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India should protect the trust, privacy of people

The world’s biggest repository of citizen information, India’s Aadhaar database, is now beyond the private sector’s reach. That was the verdict last week by the country’s top court, which refused to strike down the entire biometric-based system as unconstitutional. Now only the government can use it, and that’s a problem. Fulfilling regulatory “know-your-customer,” or KYC, requirements by verifying a bunch ...

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Theresa May’s unconvincing Corbyn imitation

Brexit-backing Boris Johnson wants to slash taxes on property purchases in Britain. A rival thinks they should be raised to target foreign buyers – not Jeremy Corbyn, but Prime Minister Theresa May. Neither pitch is convincing. Johnson is wrong to think that cutting stamp duty will fix a housing market that years of cheap mortgages and subsidies have distorted to ...

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US stock futures track global retreat; euro dips

Bloomberg A downbeat mood settled over markets on Tuesday, as fears surrounding the populist Italian government’s fiscal plans topped a list of reasons for caution. US equity futures tracked losses across Europe and Asia, the euro dropped a fifth day, and Treasuries and bunds advanced. Contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes all followed the Stoxx Europe ...

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Emerging-markets: Scene may be set for more gains

Bloomberg After a rally from mid-August gave way to another sell-off through early September, emerging-market investors would be forgiven for being wary of new signs that calm is returning. But with the dollar struggling to make headway and equity valuations in the developing economies near the lowest this year, the scene may be set for more gains. So say commentators ...

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Value quants stymied again as momentum stocks rally

Bloomberg Another rotation to value has been snuffed out. Bets that the market’s winners will keep winning and that quickly-expanding firms will outperform are once again trouncing a market-neutral portfolio that effectively buys inexpensive stocks and shorts pricier ones. The US momentum and growth factors are at multi-year highs relative to value after lagging for a small stretch in mid-September. ...

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