It’s easy to sense signs of strain in the US economy: inversion of the yield curve, lackluster jobs data and an escalating trade war with China. It’s more difficult to gauge when a slowdown turns into a recession. Predicting its severity – mild or monstrous? – is even more difficult. Recent research by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ...

Pakistan is flirting with a textbook emerging-market crisis. An unsustainable investment boom has ended. The central bank has raised interest rates to squeeze a current account gap. Growth has collapsed to a nine-year low; youth unemployment is in double digits; and inflation is getting there. Government revenues are stalling. Getting Islamabad out of its jam is once again the job ...

Haruhiko Kuroda won’t have it. The widespread notion that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is out of ammunition is nonsense, according to its governor, who says he still has the capacity to do grand things. Just look at his counterpart at the European Central Bank (ECB). “Like Mario Draghi, I think we can do these things if necessary,” Kuroda said ...