Relief that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping came to a trade truce will likely be short-lived. That’s because the two men have less command over the forces shaping global commerce than they might like to think. The decline of trade and manufacturing began in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, long before either leader came to power or ...

Employment is no doubt the best indicator of the recession I’ve been forecasting. The recent deceleration in US jobs growth suggest that the business downturn may already be underway. In terms of timeliness, payroll employment is superior among major economic statistics since it is monthly, not quarterly, and reported early, generally on first Friday of the month for data covering ...

The protests in Hong Kong have, rightly, captured the world’s attention. If the demonstrations provoke no small amount of anxiety for onlookers living abroad, the strain on the city and its residents is surely acute. With streets getting closed and travel disrupted, businesses there will inevitably feel an effect. The world’s most famous luxury goods brands will not be immune. ...