When people come up to me and declare that economists are charlatans, they usually mention how economists failed to predict the Great Recession. This is true. No mainstream macroeconomic model of the day managed to anticipate that the largest, longest economic downturn since the Great Depression was imminent, until it was already underway. Macroeconomists typically respond that forecasting isn’t …

  Looking at the headlong growth in Australian house prices — up 19 percent from a year earlier in Sydney in March — it’s tempting to believe that the market is simply uncontrollable. In 2014, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), announced measures to restrict the increase in investment mortgages. For three quarters it seemed to be working, with loan …

  On the eve of their first-ever meeting this week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has one great advantage over US President Donald Trump: He knows what he wants. By contrast, US policy towards China looks confused and contradictory. Until and unless this changes, not much progress will be made on critical issues in the most important bilateral relationship in the …