Recent Posts

Why 2020 is harder to predict than 2019 was

My main prediction for 2020, if it can be called a prediction, is trend exhaustion: For the first time in a long while, several important trends have come to an end. What do I mean by that? Trends ebb and flow, of course, but at any given moment many of them embody one of two distinct states: momentum, or reversion ...

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Fed should keep looking forward

The past decade experienced a revolution in how the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. While new tools such as quantitative easing have received the most attention, just as significant have been the changes made in how the Federal Open Market Committee sets and controls the level of short-term interest rates. Before the financial crisis, the Fed controlled short-term rates by ...

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Benettons must tread carefully on Atlantia

The Benetton name has become tarnished in Italy. The billionaire family has become synonymous with troubled infrastructure group Atlantia SpA, now facing serious financial repercussions over the tragic collapse of the Morandi road bridge in 2018. The episode starkly underscores how business is a complex social activity which depends on much more than legal contracts between its stakeholders. The investigation ...

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