Most academic models of international trade are pretty simplistic. Some of these models are surprisingly effective for making certain types of predictions—for example, economists are very good at predicting how much different countries will trade with each other. But they’re not so good at predicting what kind of things the countries will specialize in, which country will have a trade …

Democrats are in terrible shape. Republicans control all three branches of government in Washington, 34 of 50 governorships, and 68 of the 99 state legislatures. As they plot a comeback, Democrats have one obvious asset: the reckless presidency of Donald Trump. That’s not enough to close such a huge gap. And the battles that have started to rage inside the …

Bloomberg US stocks edged higher, the dollar struggled and gold rose as investors weighed the damage from Tropical Storm Harvey. European stocks started the week on the back foot following Friday’s euro surge, but managed to pare a drop. Gasoline surged to the highest in two years and oil declined as flooding from Harvey inundated refining centers along the Texas …