Failed North Korean rocket is  intelligence win for Kim’s foes

BLOOMBERG

A North Korean satellite launch that ended in failure will provide a trove of information about the secretive state’s rocket programme as South Korea salvages large sections from the bottom of the sea.
South Korea released photos of a 14.5-metre (15-yard) portion of the North Korean rocket that failed in flight shortly after takeoff on May 31. South Korea’s military said the two pieces it recovered in waters about 70 metres deep were likely from the second stage of the rocket that failed to ignite.
North Korea claimed the second stage contained a new engine and its failure may have been attributable to the “unstable character of the fuel used.”
But the discovery by South Korea will likely give clues about the state’s proficiency in engine design and perhaps point to components that may have made their way to Kim jong-un’s regime through sanctions violations.
“Anyone with access to that rocket part, and a good understanding of rockets, should be able to derive all technical data, performance data, and the manufacturing capabilities of the North Koreans from that hardware, including the meaning of proliferation for their whole program,” said Markus Schiller, an aerospace engineer who founded the ST Analytics consultancy in Germany that specialises in space technology.
The salvage operation will likely end up being the most significant by the outside world on a North Korean rocket.
The first stage of the rocket North Korea dubbed “Chollima-1,” in reference to a mythological winged horse, is suspected to have used liquid-fuel engines. The regime has also deployed those engines in its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear warheads to the US mainland.
The second and third stages were of a smaller diameter and it is uncertain how they would have been fired to place North Korea’s first spy satellite into orbit.
A cross reference of the salvaged pieces shown by South Korea and images of the rocket provided by North Korea reinforce indications of the second stage being recovered, said Joseph Dempsey, a research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“The most significant element South Korea could glean from this section is the engine,” he said. “If recovered, it could indicate the origins of the design, potentially highlighting further sanction violations.”
Under Kim, North Korea has been increasing the domestic technology and components that go into his newest array of missiles. The country still needs the outside world for certain materials and components, which it is barred from acquiring under global sanctions to punish it for its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver warheads.
The US has accused North Koreans in countries such as China and Russia of providing materials needed for missile production. The US placed sanctions on two North Koreans residing in Beijing it accused of such activity, in an announcement that came hours after the regime fired off two, short-range ballistic missiles on June 15, in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Pyongyang has fired 19 ballistic missiles so far this year, including three ICBMs, and tested a new array of systems to deliver strikes to South Korea and Japan, which host the bulk of US troops in the region.
David Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said the recovery of the rocket sections will help in finding out what materials went into its construction, possibly including foreign parts.