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Run the economy extra-hot to keep recovery strong

With the unemployment rate down to near four percent, and new claims for unemployment insurance at a 48-year low, maybe the economy can’t accommodate more workers without zooming out of control. That’s the conventional wisdom, but a few economists are skeptical of this narrative. We see an economy that is still well below its long-term trend line. How do we ...

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The eurozone can’t get its stories straight

The European Union can act in unison at times — for example, on Russia sanctions or, at least so far, on Brexit. But as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel try for a closer union in the next few years, they will need to be mindful of the fact that there is no single narrative among the ...

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Everyone has forgotten the downside to debt

As a new capital markets associate at Lehman Brothers in 2001, I was thrown into the summer program mating ritual known as rotations. That’s when you spend time working in various areas of an investment bank before being assigned to a department. The least popular assignment at the time was the government bond trading desk. Why? Because the US was ...

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