Theresa May’s government is still promising to quit Europe’s customs union when Brexit happens next year. The prime minister’s position is politically understandable, yet entirely indefensible. And it perfectly captures the bind Britain has gotten itself into. Staying in the European Union’s customs union after Brexit, or joining some specially tailored version of it, would leave the UK with a ...

Academic macroeconomists almost never try to make forecasts about the macroeconomy. That probably sounds almost unbelievable to most people, but it’s true — look at any macro paper in a mainstream economic journal, and there’s only a very small chance that it will be about forecasting. There are one or two economists out there who are deeply interested in the ...

A year after the world economy’s synchronized boomlet was recognized, it’s time to consider what the next chapter will be in the global economic story. To many people, it feels like the good times just got going, with all the major players pulling in unison. After years of moderate, patchwork expansion from the great recession, 2017 saw just about all ...