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Covid-19: Is US a civilisation in decline?

Crises such wars, depressions, natural disasters and pandemics can reveal differences in how effectively a society organises itself. In the 1600s and 1700s, for example, Britain’s more advanced tax system allowed it to outspend Spain and France, while Prussia’s efficient army let it overcome larger opponents such as Austria. In the Civil War, the Union’s industrial prowess allowed it to ...

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What does Black Death make us think about?

All upheavals leave their marks. Some fade away, some linger. Following the Black Death, the plague that’s believed to have killed 60% of Europe’s population in the second half of the 14th century, the realisation that life is short, played a big role in shaping interest rates in late medieval Europe, stretching all the way to the Enlightenment. Could we ...

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Markets don’t know how to define ‘safe’ now

If the recent selloff in markets proves anything, it’s that for too many years too many people were focussed solely on returns with zero consideration for risk or safety. The last time anyone really thought about safety in markets was during the financial crisis more than a decade ago, when investors couldn’t get enough government bonds or cash. But as ...

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