Recent Posts

No, America’s GDP isn’t going to shrink 30%

In the US, the headline gross domestic product number reported every quarter by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the percentage change in GDP from the previous quarter, annualised. Other countries, and international economic-statistics compilers such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, tend to report just the quarterly percentage change and skip the annualising. I don’t know ...

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Yet another US-wide housing slump coming

A US housing crisis is coming and although it won’t be anything like the last one, that won’t make it any less painful. Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued. And the dearth of inventory that’s plagued the current cycle will reverse in violent fashion once the worst of the virus ...

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And the coronavirus now comes for my hometown!

Those photos of famous public spaces in Paris or Manhattan in the age of corona-lockdown convey an eerie absence. The eyes search the frame for the people who aren’t there. The empty Main Street of my hometown will never be mistaken for the Tuileries or Times Square. Outside the new Vietnamese restaurant, which opened just before the coronavirus swept all ...

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