Academic macroeconomists almost never try to make forecasts about the macroeconomy. That probably sounds almost unbelievable to most people, but it’s true — look at any macro paper in a mainstream economic journal, and there’s only a very small chance that it will be about forecasting. There are one or two economists out there who are deeply interested in the ...

A year after the world economy’s synchronized boomlet was recognized, it’s time to consider what the next chapter will be in the global economic story. To many people, it feels like the good times just got going, with all the major players pulling in unison. After years of moderate, patchwork expansion from the great recession, 2017 saw just about all ...

In the decades after the Civil War, federal taxes and spending in the US were about one-sixth or one-seventh as high as they are now as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). But that doesn’t really mean government was only one-sixth or one-seventh as big as it is now. For one thing, the US government gave away hundreds of ...