Dems bid to retake Senate hinges on Biden showing

Bloomberg

Democrats are on the brink of capturing the Senate to give the party full control of Congress, though the final outcome depends heavily on the strength
of presidential nominee Joe Biden’s performance in Tuesday’s election.
Polls and independent analysts indicate Democrats have a solid chance at winning at least a narrow Senate majority, with Republicans on the defensive in 12 of the 14 most competitive races. And two years after Democrats gained control of the House by winning 41 GOP-held districts they are looking to add a dozen or more in 2020.
For both parties, the Senate largely hinges on the presidential contest between Biden and President Donald Trump.
Biden has healthy poll leads in two states with vulnerable GOP incumbents on the ballot — Maine and Colorado. He and Trump are essentially deadlocked in several other states with competitive Senate races, including Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina.
At the same time, Trump is under-performing in many
of the other states he won in 2016, giving Democrats opportunities in traditionally Republican strongholds such as Georgia and South Carolina.
“The top of the ballot is critical,” said Nathan Gonzales,
editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections. “Four years ago the presidential results and the Senate results matched up in every single state. That demonstrates a small appetite for ticket-splitting.”
Republicans now have a 53-47 Senate majority. If Republicans flip the Alabama Senate seat held by Democrat Doug Jones, Democrats would have to pick up at least four GOP seats to control the Senate if Biden wins. Democrats would need to win at least five seats to have the majority if Trump wins re-election, since the vice president can cast a tie-breaking vote in the 100-member body.
With the House likely to remain firmly in Democratic control, the eventual margin in
the Senate will be key to whether Congress will again be gridlocked. The biggest targets for Democrats are GOP Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado of Martha McSally in Arizona, all of whom have trailed their challengers consistently in public polls and fundraising. Collins and Gardner are the only two Republican incumbents in states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. McSally lost in 2018 to Kyrsten Sinema before she was appointed to the seat once held by John McCain.
Collins’ support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, who long have helped her comfortably win re-election in the past, evaporated after her votes for the 2017 GOP tax overhaul, to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and to acquit Trump after his impeachment trial. Although Collins has tried to distance herself from Trump, refusing to say whether she’ll vote for him on November 3
and opposing the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice
Amy Coney Barrett, her Democratic challenger, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, has accused her of putting Trump’s priorities over Maine’s.
Gardner went from leading his party’s Senate campaign committee in 2018 to becoming one of its most-endangered
senators, trailing former two-term Democratic Governor
John Hickenlooper. Gardner has questioned Hickenlooper on ethics and energy policy, but his embrace of Trump opened him up to Democratic attacks. Republicans are now spending little to try to keep the seat.
McSally’s seat is in formerly reliable territory for a Republican, but demographic shifts, a Trump backlash and the changing politics of health care have her on the defensive. McSally is up against one of the Democrats’ best-funded challengers, astronaut Mark Kelly, who has pledged to be an independent voice for Arizona. Republicans will likely need to hold on in North Carolina and Iowa to keep the Senate, analysts said.