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Like the eye of a hurricane, the epicenter of coronavirus disease Covid-19 has shifted from Asia to Europe, bringing with it a rising toll of infections, deaths and economic damage. After a messy few weeks in which the region’s leaders seemed incapable of hitting on a common response to the crisis — which has hit healthcare, consumer confidence and financial markets all at once — this weekend marked a turning point.
France and Spain announced draconian steps, similar to those seen in virus-stricken neighbour Italy, which has already gone several steps further in imposing a lock-down on citizens. Germany is planning partial border closures, and Austria has banned gatherings of more than five people. The public-health imperative explains the need to strangle the euro-area economy and robbing citizens of basic freedoms, but the very real threat of a knock-on recession means another test looms for governments: The need for fiscal stimulus to cushion the blow.
A ramp-up in cases has sparked the ramp-up in policies. France, Spain, and Italy boast some of the highest confirmed cases of Covid-19 outside China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, at 5,423, 7,753 and 24,747 respectively. The speed and severity of the infection is picking up: French cases have risen five-fold in
just over a week, while Spanish deaths have doubled overnight.
After initially holding back from coercive measures beyond shutting schools, French President Emmanuel Macron’s administration dramatically hit the accelerator, decreeing the imminent closure of all non-essential businesses. Covid-19 is no longer just about highly exposed countries like China or Italy. Its epicenter is European.
Forcing people to stay at home may seem at odds with a region that has for years espoused free movement and borderless travel. But the hope is that this will slow down the spread of the disease and flatten an infection curve that might otherwise take public-health services to the breaking point. That’s sensible. Especially considering that since the novel coronavirus landed in Europe, myriads of people have been crossing Europe’s internal borders, at least some of them bringing the infection with them.
The question is whether Europe can also do “whatever it takes†to offset the economic consequences of effectively putting a dome around tens of millions of people.
—Bloomberg
Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes