It’s time to put the Korea reunification trade back on the table, but only after ditching the German blueprint. With China suspending coal imports from North Korea, Pyongyang may have lost between a third and two-fifths of its export income. One gauge of whether investors perceive the embargo to be harsh enough to destabilize the despotic Kim Jong Un ...
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Flynn may be gone, but serious questions remain
President Trump confronts complicated problems as the investigation widens into Russia’s attack on our political system. But his responsibilities are simple: A month ago, he swore an oath that he would “faithfully execute†his office and “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.†That’s apparently easier said than done. In a rambling press conference Thursday and ...
Read More »It’s not record oil speculation that’ll drive prices globally
Speculators have piled back into oil since OPEC announced output cuts in November. But don’t be fooled into thinking that means prices are set to soar. As my Bloomberg News colleague Alex Longley pointed out last week, hedge funds and money managers have placed record trades on an oil rally. Net long positions of so-called oil speculators reached an ...
Read More »Europe needs a higher price on carbon
Europe’s promise to lower greenhouse-gas emissions looked bright a dozen years ago, when its leaders created the first big market for trading carbon permits. Sadly, though, its system has failed to encourage investment in clean technology and appreciably lower carbon dioxide emissions. Until the European Union trims the number of permits traded enough to drastically raise the cost of ...
Read More »Iraqi troops face tough fight in western Mosul
US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in Iraq as forces of the war-torn country embarked on major air-and-ground offensive to drive IS extremists from western Mosul. Iraq’s second-largest city Mosul fell into the hands of the extremists in the summer of 2014, when the group captured large swaths of northern and western Iraq. Iraqi army, special operations forces, and federal ...
Read More »How to explain divergence of global interest rates
Global bond markets trade on variables such as currency valuations, global fund flows, inflation expectations and monetary policy that can determine the level of interest-rate differentials. Recently these differentials have widened dramatically, specifically in developed markets such as Japan, the UK and Germany, relative to the US. There are multiple theories about why these differentials exist and how they ...
Read More »Where flying cars might take us!
I’ve always thought that the fastest way to get flying cars would be to spread rumors that China built one first. Well, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority just announced that they have a Chinese-made flying car, and intend to put flying taxis in service this summer. Meanwhile, we’re still anticipating the flying cars promised by Uber Inc., Airbus Group ...
Read More »How to solve riddle of Venezuela’s economy
Forget Donald Trump. Long before the White House began trafficking in alternative facts, Venezuela’s government had cornered the market in magical thinking. You say gross economic mismanagement is wrecking the economy? Nonsense, volleyed President Nicolas Maduro, the disappearance of goods like food and medicine is the work of unscrupulous profiteers. The continent’s largest oil producer can’t keep the lights ...
Read More »Two cheers for a carbon tax
By all means, let’s have a carbon tax. It’s the best way to deal with global climate change. It would require Republicans and Democrats to compromise — a good thing — and would provide revenues for a government that desperately needs more revenue. Fine. But let’s not pretend that a carbon tax is a panacea for either climate change ...
Read More »Broken deals don’t have to leave banks so broken-hearted
Clients come first. In investment banking, a world where dealmakers spend years (or even decades) cultivating relationships with company executives, that mantra rings loud and clear. Bankers advising on mergers and acquisitions have historically tied their fates to that of clients, generally pocketing the bulk of their fees only when a deal crosses the finish line. It’s an outcome ...
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