The transition from liquidity-powered markets for risk assets to those influenced a lot more by fundamentals was never likely to be smooth, as it involved changes to drivers of investor behavior and market flows. Yet, despite this year’s unsettling spikes in high-frequency, two-way market moves, the right investment strategy is to “look through†the volatility. Given the events in markets ...
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Trump’s trade war pushes Europe towards China’s Xi
The trade fight between the US and China is posing a dilemma to the European Union: Should the world’s largest trading bloc pick a side? And, if so, which one? In theory, the US is the more natural ally for Europe: The two have cooperated closely since the end of World War II, building the multilateral institutions which are now ...
Read More »Don’t rule out a yuan devaluation
Don’t relax yet: A potential yuan devaluation is still very much on the table. Currency traders sighed with relief after Chinese President Xi Jinping moved to ease trade tensions with the US, reiterating pledges to open the country’s economy further and cautioning against a cold-war mentality and zero-sum thinking. The yuan had weakened for the four previous days, with jitters ...
Read More »Meddle with European banks’ senior bonds at your peril
European regulators are breaking something that didn’t need fixing. By pushing banks to issue senior non-preferred debt instead of traditional senior bonds, they risk inadvertently shutting many of the region’s neediest lenders out of the funding market. The securities are senior in name only — they can be turned into equity in the event of a catastrophe in the same ...
Read More »Europe’s planned digital tax is indeed a bad idea
The European Commission’s proposed tax on digital services is intended to make companies such as Google and Uber pay more. The idea is that such firms are gaming the rules at the expense of other taxpayers. The issue is real and needs to be addressed — but the answer under discussion breaks with both established international practice and plain common ...
Read More »Lessons on financial-market bubbles from the Bitcoin
The recent Bitcoin bubble wasn’t the first, and it might not be the last. Once in 2011 and twice in 2013, the price soared and then crashed: And again: One more time: Each peak was bigger than the last. If you think there will be another, even bigger bubble somewhere down the line, then maybe any losses you took in ...
Read More »Tesco has a $5.7bn question hanging over its head
Tesco Plc, Britan’s biggest grocer, has completed its 4 billion pound ($5.7 billion) purchase of cash-and-carry chain Booker Group Plc. But investors hoping for more super-savings from the retail deal have to wait a little bit longer. That’s not to sniff at the 28 percent increase in Tesco’s full-year operating profit before exceptional items, nor the almost 30 percent reduction ...
Read More »Why Zuckerberg is winning the Facebook hearings
Mark Zuckerberg did just fine in his first turn in the Congressional hot seat. He was confident. He capably tackled many of the queries proposed last week by Bloomberg columnists. The 33-year-old billionaire appeared humble throughout much of the hearing, with only a few smug smiles. The best news for Facebook Inc. the company was that Zuckerberg ably deflected any ...
Read More »Donald Trump has lost the confidence of investors
US President Donald Trump likes to equate the rally in stocks since the November 2016 elections with confidence in him and his policies. And yes, the S&P 500 Index has surged 22% since then, but a deeper look at equities, bonds and the dollar reveals anything but trust in his stewardship. Here’s the executive summary: US companies are valued less ...
Read More »Is the phony US-China trade war over?
With its plans to levy 25% tariffs on $50 billion of US products including soybeans, cars and aircraft, China looks to have stepped the simmering Trans-Pacific economic battle up a gear. The initial parries between Washington and Beijing resulted in little more than flesh wounds. There were a series of levies on steel and aluminum exports to the US, which ...
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