Opinion

The interest-rate futures market is convinced the Bank of England will raise borrowing costs next month. But three consecutive sets of disappointing economic statistics this week should restrain the hawks on the Monetary Policy Committee from turning the present political and economic drama into a crisis. The pound lurched lower, dropping below $1.30, after disappointing retail sales figures. The combination ...

The greatest hope of European regulators cracking down on Google’s business practices is that the rest of the world becomes a little more like China and its flourishing technology industry. It’s hard to imagine the European bureaucrats’ dreams will come true. In China, government restrictions and Google’s strategic decisions have left the country’s technology market to operate almost free from ...

In the US and other developed countries, there are three basic philosophies of macroeconomic stabilisation. Each of them was present in some form during the Great Depression, and each survives to this day. The first is Keynesianism, which centers around fiscal stimulus, mainly in the form of increased government spending. The second is monetarism, which holds that getting economies out ...

What’s the most important element in global commodity markets right now? Carbon? Copper? Gold? Wrong on all three counts. Sulfur — the yellow, infernal substance that gives rotten eggs their smell and hardens the rubber in car tires — is quietly roiling the energy industry. The disruptions could reshape everything from Australian coal, to the diesel and gasoline in your ...

Donald Trump has to decide what he wants. Rising interest rates, which he says he doesn’t like, are a reflection of a strong economy. He loves to take credit for the latter and frequently boasts about how great things are since he came to office. One begets the other. America isn’t being penalised for doing well, as Trump complained in ...

When it comes to assessing the outlook for the US economy these days, the discussion usually starts with the bond market’s yield curve. At less than 30 basis points, the difference between two- and 10-year Treasury yields is the narrowest since 2007. This is classic late-cycle behaviour. The curve is signalling that the market thinks the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases, ...

Loss of credit insurance has played a part in several UK retail horror stories over the past decade. Investors in Debenhams Plc will be hoping the chain doesn’t follow the familiar narrative. One leading insurer, Euler Hermes, has reduced cover for suppliers, while rivals Atradius and Coface have refused to cover new shipments, the Sunday Times reported. Credit insurance protects ...

Mergers and acquisitions are booming, with 2018 projected to be the first year that global deal volume breaks $5 trillion. But merger arbitrage funds, which attempt profit on perceived market inefficiencies before or after an M&A deal is announced, are not doing well. The last three months for which data are available represent the first time MAFs have lost money ...

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s new Brexit strategy is collapsing even before the European Union responds. Her plan offered an awkward compromise between a clean break from Europe, which would cause enormous economic disruption, and remaining in the EU, which voters rejected two years ago. Apparently, it’s an offer nobody wants to accept. May’s Conservative Party is bitterly divided between ...

It’s hard to convey the full breadth of the shock felt from witnessing the president of the United States attack NATO allies, refer to the EU as a “foe,” criticise and insult the UK prime minister while on British soil, and call into question a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal. This is particularly true when contrasted with President Donald Trump’s press ...