Opinion

  One of the best things to do when confronted by a major surprise is to see what there is to be learned from the experience. I always try to identify what sorts of lessons can be gleaned from nonmarket events. You would be surprised at how often there are rules and insights to be had about investing. In the …

  Noah Smith As you might expect, economists tend to talk about lots things in terms of supply and demand. Macroeconomics is no different. The basic model of recessions and booms that gets taught in undergrad classes relies on the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Just like the demand for oranges is the number of oranges people want …

  Worried by the rise of populism in politics? Blame the central banks. Every populist politician in the world will go to bed tonight dreaming the dream after Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election. Every member of the so-called elite — however you choose to define that amorphous concept — needs to take a long, searching look …

  President Obama should focus on three foreign policy challenges, post-election, to finish fights that began on his watch. These include setting rules for cyber behavior with Russia and other nations, pressing on toward Raqqa and the destruction of the Islamic State, and a “Hail Mary” effort to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal during the lame-duck session of …

  The shipping industry accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than airplanes, buses or trains. Yet it was not included in last year’s Paris accord — and an attempt last month to redress this failure manages to be both unambitious and impractical. The world’s 90,000 shipping vessels burn about five million barrels of petroleum products each day, and their emissions …

  He came; he confronted; and he conquered. The unexpected result has given the ‘unpredictable’ the presidential crown. Donald Trump has been voted to become the 45th president of the United States of America. If Brexit was a big shock for the world, Donald Trump’s victory is the bigger one. Undoubtedly, the realty tycoon has stunned America and the world. …

  It certainly took everyone in India by surprise. But then, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a flair for the dramatic. In an unexpected primetime address on Tuesday, he announced that in a few hours, millions of high-denomination currency notes would no longer be legal tender. It was the only way, he insisted, to deal with “the disease” of unaccounted-for …

  A funny thing happened on the path to disruption. This decade, most of Silicon Valley’s big societal claims have turned out to be wrong. These claims arguably began around the time this cycle’s real expansion began, in late 2011. Two scholars’ 2011 text, “Race Against the Machine,” looked at some of the problems plaguing the U.S. economy — stagnant …

  Noah Smith A little while ago, I wrote that libertarianism — the small-government philosophy codified by Robert Nozick and others in the mid-20th century — is looking a little shopworn. As efforts to slash government yield diminishing returns, and empirical evidence piles up that many government interventions are very beneficial, the minimalist state envisioned by Nozick et al. doesn’t …

Regardless of who wins this bitterly contested election, the victor will face the same basic, daunting, task: reconciling the vast promises that have been made, both in this campaign and earlier, with the government’s limited ability to meet those promises. It won’t be easy. You can blame Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or both for this campaign’s guttural nature —the lies, …