On Monday, I cast doubt on the many stories about how Black Friday retail sales were off to a disappointing start. This is an important story because retail is such a critical part of the U.S. economy, and because such a large share of the industry’s sales occur during the roughly five weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas. But the …
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Italy should say yes to Renzi’s new constitution
In Sunday’s referendum, Italy will be voting on two things. The first is the question on the ballot — whether to support Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s proposal for constitutional reform. The second is whether the country wants Renzi, who’s made this vote a test of confidence, to stay in charge. The answer to both questions should be yes. First, …
Read More »OPEC deal to cut output a bright spot
The OPEC agreed on Wednesday to cut the crude output to end the global oil glut. The oil cartel defied expectations and nailed down its first joint output cut since 2008 after tough talks in Vienna. The cuts are intended to shrink the world’s bloated oil stockpiles back to a normal level, paving the way for prices to rise …
Read More »Uber’s identity crisis
An important trial started at the Court of Justice of the European Union, the EU’s top judicial authority. The judges are trying to determine whether Uber is a taxi company or merely a tech platform that enables customers to find drivers, and the decision, which is not likely to come before April, will serve as a precedent for other …
Read More »Jobs data matter, even if a hike is certain
The monthly US jobs report for November that will be released on Friday is unlikely to be so bad that the Federal Open Market Committee would upset market expectations and refrain from hiking interest rates in mid-December. Instead, the data are likely to validate what fixed-income markets have already priced in when it comes to short-term interest rates. The …
Read More »Mark Carney brings you Yesterdays bank crisis, today
The curse of the rear-view mirror has struck again. The Bank of England’s stress tests of UK banks were the toughest yet, but didn’t model the impact of the Brexit negotiations or a withdrawal from the EU. Rather than bickering over whether such tests are too tough or too lenient, we should be questioning whether the process itself needs …
Read More »A world where the truth is losing
Richard Stengel, the State Department’s undersecretary for public diplomacy, bluntly states the problem that has been worrying him, and should worry us all: “In a global information war, how does the truth win?” The very idea that the truth won’t be triumphant would, until recently, have been heresy to Stengel, a former managing editor of Time magazine. But in …
Read More »The messages to politicians from financial markets
As this historic November ends, the message from the financial markets seems clear: For now, the outlook for the U.S. economy appears brighter, both in absolute terms and relative to other advanced economies. Very few predicted these developments, which speak to the enormous fluidity that has taken over markets and politics and that signal the gradual end of the …
Read More »Cutting off global trade won’t revive the rust belt
Donald Trump’s tough talk on trade and immigration was a winning message in parts of the Midwest. If this talk is put into action, that could accelerate the economic decline of much of the region. One flaw in the conventional thinking about globalization is that it’s an international phenomenon. Manufacturing jobs move from the U.S. to China or Mexico. …
Read More »World must act to stop Aleppo carnage
There are apocalyptic scenes in the streets of Syria’s Aleppo. As the bombs rain down on the besieged city, it causes horrible sufferings everywhere. More than 250 civilians have been killed in the government’s assault on east Aleppo since November 15, including nearly 30 children. And up to 20,000 people have fled the regime offensive in the past 72 …
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