Canadian consumer confidence dips heading into election year

Bloomberg

Canadians enter 2019 far less optimistic about the economy than a year earlier. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, based on weekly telephone polling, ended 2018 at 55.1, down from 62.2 at the close of 2017. The change was driven more by Canadians’ views of the overall outlook than of their own finances — 39.6 percent expect the domestic economy to weaken over the next six months, more than double the share that thought so a year earlier.
The numbers show that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is entering an election year with voters feeling anxious, despite reaching a deal to update the North American Free Trade Agreement. Pessimism is strongest in the West — in British Columbia, the economic expectations sub-index fell to 39.9, the lowest level since the depths of the 2009 recession.
“Western Canadians continued to be mired in a consumer sentiment malaise with confidence noticeably lower in Prai-rie provinces and B.C. than the rest of the country,” Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research said.
Only 16 percent of Canadians now expect the economy to strengthen in the first six months of 2019, compared with 30.5 percent who thought so at the end of 2017.
The outlook varies substantially by age. The index score is highest for those 18 to 29, at 61.5, and drops with each older group, reaching 50.1 for those 60 or older. Home ownership is also a factor — the index fell to 52.5 from 61.5 a year earlier among those who own a home, but was 60.1 among renters, down from 63.8. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates three times in 2018.
On real estate, 39.7 percent of Canadians expect prices to
increase in their neighbourhood in the next six months, compared with 18 percent who expect a decrease.