Brexit supercharges political push towards a united Ireland

Bloomberg

One potent force is emerging from the torpid dispute over Northern Ireland between the UK and European Union, and the potential consequences could redraw the map more dramatically than Brexit.
Sinn Fein, whose ultimate goal is a united Ireland and the end of British rule, is leading the polls ahead of critical elections to Belfast’s power-sharing assembly on May 5 after pro-UK unionist parties lost ground since the divorce from the EU. It puts Sinn Fein on course to take the post of first minister for the first time just as the party’s popularity has also swelled in the Republic of Ireland because of discontent over the economy.
The seemingly inexorable rise of a group that was linked with the sectarian violence that blighted Northern Ireland for three decades threatens to upend the political order in ways that would reverberate worldwide.
A powerful Sinn Fein both north and south of the Irish border would reinforce the drive for reunification, even if there’s little prospect right now of a referendum on the issue. In the Republic, an election isn’t due for three years, but it will take a marked reversal to stop Sinn Fein gaining the mandate to play a major role in the government in Dublin for the first time since Ireland became an independent state a little over a century ago.
“The whole political landscape has shifted dramatically,” said Diarmaid Ferriter, professor of modern history at University College Dublin. “Psychologically, symbolically and practically, this is about a change of guard and given the loaded history of Northern Ireland and the nature of the state, it’s a very significant development.” The political sands have definitely shifted. Unionists loyal to the UK no longer have a clear majority. Brexit, which the biggest unionist party backed when Northern Ireland overall voted against it, has also further fueled the nationalist cause because of a growing negative view of the British government and dysfunction at the executive in Belfast.
Northern Ireland’s government was effectively paralysed this month when First Minister Paul Givan of the Democratic Unionist Party, or DUP, resigned in protest over the Northern Irish Protocol. That’s the part of the Brexit divorce treaty that keeps the region in the European customs union and prescribes checks on goods coming in from the rest of the UK.
Talks between the UK and EU at resolving their dispute over how it should all work have been at an impasse for months. Diplomats say they see little chance for any substantial progress until after May’s election. Any outcome will also be closely watched in Washington. President Joe Biden, who is of Irish ancestry, has said stability in Northern Ireland can’t be jeopardized by Brexit.
The DUP’s opposition to the protocol hasn’t played well with the electorate. The party’s share of first preference votes has slumped by a third from five years ago, according to a recent poll from the Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool and The Irish News. A January poll for LucidTalk and the Belfast Telegraph newspaper put Sinn Fein eight percentage points ahead.
That also puts Sinn Fein’s candidate for first minister, deputy leader Michelle O’Neill, in pole position. She would head the local government in conjunction with a deputy of equal standing from a unionist party, yet having the title would be symbolic. It would be the first time a nationalist would have held the position since the Belfast assembly was born out of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that heralded an often precarious peace in Northern Ireland.
It’s also a scenario that would have been inconceivable a generation ago for a party that was widely regarded as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army as recently as the 1990s, said Brian Hanley, assistant professor in 20th century history at Trinity College Dublin. “The idea that they would one day not only be the majority representatives of the nationalist community but also close to the position of first minister would have been unthinkable,” he said.