Brexit prospects fade as talks stall, EU signals pessimism

Bloomberg

Prospects of a Brexit deal faded after talks between the two sides stalled and European leaders cast doubt on reaching an agreement in time for the October 31 deadline.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar both signalled they want progress by Friday, adding to a sense that time is running out for the two sides to come together. Despite the gloom, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson received a modest boost from Poland on Monday, when foreign minister Konrad Szymanski urged the EU to “seriously consider” the latest British proposals as a rare chance to end the deadlock.
Johnson for his part struck a defiant tone, saying the UK will leave the European Union as planned on Halloween, regardless of whether the EU accepts his latest offer.
He told Macron by phone that the EU shouldn’t be “lured into the mistaken belief that the UK will stay in the EU after October 31,” his office said.
“We will be packing our bags and walking out,” Johnson wrote in the Sun. “The only question is whether Brussels cheerily waves us off with a mutually agreeable deal, or whether we will be forced to head off on our own.”
But Johnson is issuing contradictory messages. The government has repeatedly said it will obey a law passed by parliament compelling the premier to request a Brexit delay if he can’t get an agreement by October 19. However, a senior official in his office said it would be an historic misunderstanding if EU leaders thought Johnson’s domestic opponents could prevent a no-deal departure.
Securing a Brexit deal is the only obvious way to obey the law and see through Brexit at the end of the month. But the indications from the EU are that proposals Johnson made last week to resolve the impasse won’t cut it. As time ticks down to Brexit day, there were no negotiations over the weekend.
Johnson’s Brexit blueprint would see Northern Ireland remain in regulatory alignment with the EU for manufactured goods, livestock and agricultural products, so long as the region’s political leaders agree to the arrangement every four years. But he’s had push-back from the EU, whose chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, told diplomats that the UK blueprint falls far short of his conditions for a deal.
Barclay suggested there’s room for the UK to alter its position on customs checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and on how to determine consent by Northern Ireland. “Of course in the mechanism as part of the intensive negotiations, we can look at that,” he told the BBC.
Time is short to reach a consensus. Ireland’s Varadkar said it’d be “reasonable” to expect an improved UK offer by Friday, while Latvian PM Krisjanis Karins told the BBC that “the EU doesn’t have a whole lot of wiggle room,” because of the difficulty in getting 27 nations to agree.
The Daily Telegraph, citing several government officials, reported in its Monday edition that Johnson is prepared to go to the Supreme Court to avoid having to write the letter seeking to delay Brexit.