BOJ jolts financial markets but risk of a bigger shock remains

Bloomberg

An unchanged decision from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) gave global investors a modest jolt Wednesday, leaving the bigger shock of a future policy shift hanging over markets from the yen to Treasuries.
Standing pat caught some traders by surprise but is unlikely to douse speculation that the BOJ will normalize policy as inflation in Japan accelerates and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda nears the end of his term. It suggests just a temporary setback to bets on a stronger yen and a bond selloff as analysts say it’s still a question of when — not if — the central bank exits its yield-curve control policy.
Japan’s currency slumped over 2% versus the dollar, its government bonds surged as traders covered short positions and stocks pushed higher. Treasury 10-year yields declined, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index initially strengthened after BOJ maintained its ultra-loose stance.
Bonds in other global markets were seen as most at risk from any policy shift that pushes Japanese yields higher, which may trigger a wave of money flowing back to the nation out of substantial overseas holdings. Japanese investors are the largest foreign owners of Treasuries and strategists have said bonds in Australia and France are also vulnerable.
Last year’s rise in local yields helped fuel a record sale of ¥21.7 trillion ($168 billion) of foreign bonds in 2022, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance going back to 2005.
The BOJ kept its main policy settings unchanged Wednesday, leaving its negative interest rate at -0.1%, while maintaining a trading band of 50 basis points around 0% for 10-year bonds. There had been some expectation that it would raise the cap or drop the yield curve control.
Kuroda said he didn’t see the need to widen the yield range further, speaking later at the press conference following the statement.
“We don’t think this changes anything as BOJ will be forced to continue to defend YCC by buying more JGBs,” Amir Anvarzadeh, strategist at Asymmetric Advisors Pte. wrote in a note. “Sooner or later they need to tweak YCC again whether under Kuroda’s reign or the next governor, but the volume of their JGB purchases remain unsustainable and the yen will strengthen again toward the 120 level.”
The central bank said it would continue large-scale bond buying and increase purchases on a flexible basis if needed. It also enhanced a provision for loans to commercial banks in a bid to encourage them to buy more debt — another tactic in its stubborn
defense of policy.
The loan program was a “positive surprise for the market” and why Treasuries and Australian government debt climbed, said Hidehiro Joke, a senior bond strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Some market participants expected this kind of tweak to control the yield curve, including swaps, but I think up to 10 years is a large extension.”
Further out, economists are positioning for a change, with a number bringing forward their expected timing for a shift, according to Bloomberg survey. Some now predict an adjustment in April, the first meeting scheduled under a new governorship, while others expect a pivot in June.
Wednesday’s decision “means there are higher chances that the BOJ will pass the current policy framework to the next leadership rather than changing it under Kuroda,” said Hideo Kumano, executive economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.