Bloomberg
The Thai baht’s reign as Asia’s best-performing currency is coming under threat from an unlikely source: South Korea’s won.
The baht has slumped into the bottom half of the regional rankings this quarter after heading the table for three consecutive three-month periods. The won meanwhile has shrugged off its chronic underperformance and rocketed to the top.
The main reason behind the Korean currency’s revival has been the sea-change in sentiment surrounding US-China trade tensions. After the dispute between the world’s two-largest economies heightened through the early part of year, recent rhetoric suggests a phase-one deal is getting closer.
This has been a big fillip to the won as the two countries are by far the largest buyers of South Korea exports. The won has strengthened 2.5% against the dollar this quarter after sliding 6.7% during the first nine months of the year.
The won is also being supported by a brace of domestic factors. Industrial production growth for September was four times the median estimate of economists, while semiconductor inventories for the same month dropped the most in two years, suggesting a prolonged slump in tech demand may be easing. The won may get a further boost if trade data backs up these green shoots.
Baht Falters
The baht has tumbled down the regional rankings after Bank of Thailand stepped up measures to cap the currency’s strength. Policy makers cut interest rates for the second time in three months on November 6, lowering the benchmark to match an all-time low 1.25%. They also said they would ease rules on outflows to curb the surging currency.
Measures taking effect from November 8 included allowing exporters to keep a larger amount of money abroad, and scrapping most restrictions on outward transfers.
The Bank of Thailand will review these policies every three months and take further steps if needed, deputy governor Mathee Supapongse said.