Are Democrats pulling ahead of Republicans?

When Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans in broad averages on the generic ballot, I didn’t believe it. We’ve seen many large polling errors in Democrats’ favour in recent years, a 50-50 House vote would defy the historical trend towards the incumbent president’s party facing backlash in the midterms, and Joe Biden’s low approval ratings seem inconsistent with Democrats doing well.
But a couple of events on August 9 have made me a believer.
First was a special election for a House seat in Minnesota. Democrats didn’t win. But, in losing, their candidate ran about 3 percentage points ahead of Joe Biden’s 2020 margin in the district and about even with Democrats’ 2020 candidate for the seat. Those numbers are similar to the results we saw in the June 28 special election for Nebraska’s first congressional district. Again, the Republican won. But he won with numbers that were somewhat weaker than Trump’s in 2020 and about flat with House Republicans’ performance.
Those are two random races, but they provide a real-world field test of the national political climate. The generic ballot says Democrats are very slightly ahead, which is exactly where they were in 2020. That’s hard to believe. But the special election results in Nebraska and Minnesota were in line with the local results from 2020. In other words, they’re exactly what you’d expect if that generic ballot polling is correct.
The other data point is from the primaries held in Washington State the same day as the Minnesota special election. Washington uses a “top two” electoral system. Instead of Democrats and Republicans running in separate primaries, everyone participates in a two-phase process. The first phase, the voting that happened on Augusrt 9, has candidates from both parties all mixed together. Whichever candidates finish first and second — usually but not always one Democrat and one Republican — run against each other in November. This system lets us aggregate all the votes received by the various Democrats and all the votes received by the various Republicans and get a preview of the November election.
The results in the state’s House races were similar to what they were in 2016 and 2020 — much better for Democrats than in 2010 or 2014 — consistent with a very close national race for control of the US House of Representatives. However, there’s tonnes of money based on only one set of primaries and two special elections.
But what’s impressive is that these results are consistent with one another and, most important, with the polling. They suggest that the national political climate for Democrats has improved a lot since voters in Virginia and New Jersey went to the polls last November.
What accounts for the turnaround? Probably a mix of three factors.
One is that gasoline prices started to fall, ultimately delivering 0% total inflation in July. Year-on-year price increases remain at a generational high, but the short-term trend has been good lately.
The other is that Republicans have no convincing argument against Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act. It delivers exactly what Republicans say they want — an innovation-focused package of measures designed to increase US energy production — but they won’t support it because the GOP is still wedded to low taxes on the wealthy more profoundly than to any other principle. Last but by no means least, the overturning of Roe v. Wade leaves Republicans playing with political dynamite.

—Bloomberg