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ABU DHABI / WAM
The UAE’s economic growth is expected to remain robust, averaging 4.6 percent from 2022 to 2024, driven by higher oil prices and improved business confidence, according to the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF). The AMF’s “Arab Economic Outlook Report forecasts a 4.2 percent growth rate for the UAE in 2023, accompanied by a decline in the consumer price index to 2.9 percent in 2023 and 2.57 percent in 2024.
With stable oil and gas prices and lower prices for basic goods, such as agricultural products, the report projected a 3.4 percent growth for Arab economies, accompanied by tighter monetary policies to curb inflation.
The report also showed that Arab countries with economic reform programmes and strategies to diversify their economies, improve their resilience, enhance their business environments, empower the private sector and invest in human capital are more able to cope with economic shocks.
According to the report, the economic growth rate of Arab countries will rise to 4 percent in 2024, mainly due to the expected stability of oil and gas prices, basic goods prices, and controlled inflation.
Higher energy prices will boost the economic growth of major Arab oil exporters in 2023 and 2024, with their economies expected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2023 and by 4.2 percent in 2024, the report stated.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have a positive outlook for 2023, with an expected GDP growth of 3.4 percent, mainly due to their efforts to diversify their sources of income, the report added, noting that oil prices are likely to remain stable and high, resulting in higher oil revenues and improved financial outcomes, foreign exchange reserves and fiscal positions.
The report stressed that promoting workforce localisation and increasing the participation of citizens in the private sector is another key approach to achieving growth in GCC countries, most notably in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
According to the AMF report, Arab countries that import oil will see their growth rate increase from 3.1 percent in 2023 to 4 percent in 2024, after inflation is controlled by the end of this year and monetary policies are eased.
Various international organisations had different estimates for global economic growth in 2023 and 2024, ranging from 1.7 percent to 2.9 percent for 2023 and from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent for 2024, the report stated.