Al-Qaeda Somalia raids scuttle Africa’s plan to withdraw

Bloomberg

African troops battling an al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia for the past decade stand little chance of withdrawing by their deadline in two years as the government remains fragile and a spike in militant violence has drawn in US forces.
The longest-running African Union peacekeeping mission, known as Amisom, operates in a shattered country whose lawlessness has bred regional violence — al-Shabaab has staged attacks in Kenya, Uganda and Djibouti — and piracy that plagued global shipping in the early 2000s. Over the past year, the US has boosted its cooperation with the Somali army, targeting al-Shabaab and an Islamic State faction. The US Africa Command said al-Shabaab controls about a fifth of Somalia, mainly in the south.
Assaults on Ugandan peacekeepers this month show the challenge still facing the mission that deployed in 2007 as al-Shabaab stepped up its violence. Since October, Somalia has suffered its deadliest attack in three decades of civil war, debate in parliament threatened to turn violent and the federal and regional governments have been at loggerheads.
Amisom officials still talk as if departure is imminent and say 1,000 troops from about 22,000 uniformed personnel will leave this year. Yet in March they asked the UN to repeal a resolution to trim the force, which also includes Kenyan, Ethiopian, Djiboutian and Burundian soldiers.
A 2020 exit is “extremely unrealistic,” said Richard Cole, a former adviser to Somalia’s army. Talk of leaving is based on the “war-weariness” of the troop-contributing countries rather than “the situation on the ground, where al-Shabaab has not been decisively defeated and remains a constant threat,” he said.
US forces have conducted 12 strikes against al-Shabaab so far this year, according to the US Africa Command.
Amisom’s deputy head of mission, Simon Mulongo, said it “will most likely stay longer than 2020-21 because of challenges to statehood development, despite significant gains registered.” Without Amisom, the insurgents are “capable of easily retaking the reins of power,” he said.

Comprehensive Training
Many Somali officials agree 2020 isn’t feasible. The chief inspector of police, Hassan Mohamed Nur, said by phone that the army won’t be able to take over without increased capacity, an organisational overhaul and a comprehensive training programme.