Ukraine’s slow offensive buoys Putin, worries allies

BLOOMBERG

Ukraine’s allies now worry the war is dragging into a long fight that may strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as hopes fade that Kyiv’s forces will deliver a definitive breakthrough this year.
More than two months into its counteroffensive, Kyiv has so far managed to make only tactical advances against heavily dug-in Russian forces, despite having committed many of the units trained and armed by the US and Europe for the operation. The window for further big actions is narrowing as wet and cold weather looms in the autumn.
Ukraine and its allies vow to keep up the fight as long as needed, but officials concede it will be a tall order to repeat the levels of massive support that made the current push possible. Stocks of ammunition in particular are depleted and production in the US and Europe won’t be ramped up until late 2024. F-16 fighters likely won’t arrive until next year, either.
Some of Ukraine’s supporters still see a chance its forces will break through Russian lines this year before the wet, cold weather sets in and complicates operations on Ukraine’s muddy steppes. Ukraine has confounded expectations and surprised Russia several times over the 18-month conflict, with the Kremlin yet to achieve any of its original goals.
Cluster munitions supplied by the US in recent weeks have helped Kyiv’s troops push Russian forces back, allowing advances beyond the first line of defenses in some areas, according to people familiar with the matter. But as the offensive stretches on, sustaining aid is getting harder politically in the US. The fight to pass the next funding bill for Ukraine in Congress this fall is expected to be the toughest yet and this week’s Republican presidential candidate debate underlined the growing hostility in the party towards sending weapons and aid to Kyiv.
European officials worry President Joe Biden may eventually look to nudge Ukraine towards negotiations in the absence of significant battlefield progress as the campaign heats up next year.
Continued US support to Ukraine remains essential because Europe alone doesn’t have the military capacity to sufficiently bolster Kyiv’s forces, the people said. The Biden administration has repeatedly said it will back Ukraine for as long as it takes and has gradually increased the heft of weapons it’s providing Kyiv.
If fighting grinds to an impasse over the winter, “it’s a really big problem, there’s going to be war fatigue,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
“The US is going to be less and less interested in what’s happening in Ukraine and it’s going to be more and more difficult for Europeans to convince the Americans that Ukraine is an American problem.”
Russia, meanwhile, has managed to get around allied attempts to starve its war effort of key components and has enough munitions for at least another year of fighting, the people said, noting that the Kremlin also has been able to continue bringing new troops to the front despite huge losses. Putin’s assessment is that a long war of attrition gives Russia an advantage, allied officials said, putting the onus on the US and Europe to prove him wrong. Earlier this year, the US and Europe were optimistic about significant progress as they poured armoured vehicles, missile systems and other weapons into Ukraine, sending entire units for training in Nato countries.