Ethiopia risks descent into civil war over row

Bloomberg

Ethiopia’s leader ordered the military to respond to an alleged attack on an army camp in the restive Tigray region, escalating a standoff between the federal and state governments.
Military operations began in Tigray overnight and a six-month state of emergency has been declared in the northern region, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum said by phone on Wednesday. The intervention came after Abiy accused the region’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front of orchestrating the raid on the camp.
“Our defense forces, under the command of the Command Post, have been ordered to carry out their mission to save the country,” Abiy said on Facebook.
The impasse comes as the central government struggles to end ethnic violence shaking Africa’s second-most populous country. It risks deteriorating into a full-blown conflict that could draw in neighbouring states including Eritrea, whose president has long been at odds with Tigrayan leaders.
The Tigray region is already heavily militarised because of its proximity to Eritrea, which fought a war with Ethiopia from 1998-2000. The Northern Command that’s situated in Tigray comprises more than half of the armed forces’ total personnel and mechanised divisions, according to the International Crisis Group.
“The developments overnight are truly terrifying,” said Nic Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham. “If we do not see a de-escalation of tensions and moves towards outright military confrontation, Ethiopia is heading for a civil war
that could easily escalate beyond Tigray, calling into question the country’s very existence.” Relations between Tigray and Abiy’s government have been strained since Abiy took office in 2018 and sidelined the TPLF, once the pre-eminent power broker in Ethiopia.