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Just as coronavirus infections weaken, European countries lift foreign travel restrictions and people gear up for the possibility that we might actually get on an airplane again, one of the world’s largest tourism markets is effectively shutting down. Under rules to be finalised on Tuesday, anyone arriving in the UK from June 8, including returning Britons, will have to quarantine for 14 days, with a hefty fine levied on those found in breach of the rules.
The government claims that the quarantine is based on “the latest scientific evidence†and that it’s necessary to prevent further transmission of Covid-19. But, as with the 2-metre (6.5-foot) social-distancing rule I wrote about last week, the supporting evidence appears tenuous, while the economic impact from the measure will be substantial.
There’s no question that air travel was a deadly multiplier for the spread of Covid-19. A mathematical simulation from a group of modelers at Stanford University, published last month, showed how limiting passenger flights was key to reducing transmission rates. Quarantines can be hugely effective, especially when a virus can be transmitted before symptoms develop and those
potentially incubating the infection can be identified and isolated.
But much depends on the rules being observed. During the Sars outbreak in 2003, Toronto tried to impose a large-scale quarantine, but found compliance was poor, with only 57% of people quarantined following the rules on isolation. Arguably the measures then did more harm than good, fueling public anxiety and requiring enormous government resources to enforce.
It’s not clear that the UK’s quarantine would be observed or enforceable. For the most part, police here haven’t even tried to get people to comply with the new number limits on gatherings in outdoor spaces, breaking up only large groups. As for policing homes, forget it — unless the government plans to ape those countries, where quarantines are backed up by electronic bracelets and threats of huge fines and prison terms.
Forcing arrivals in a country to isolate themselves makes plenty of sense early in a disease’s progression, when a lack of public awareness, testing, contact tracing and protective equipment makes travelers a key vector for a virus. Britain didn’t do this back when it would have really made a difference with the new coronavirus; it’s hard to see the utility of doing it now. Infection rates are also lower in most other countries now, suggesting there’s more risk from domestic UK travel and tourism. Then there’s the economic cost. Foreign visitors aren’t exactly banging down UK’s door right now, given its struggles to get the pandemic under control, and the country can’t afford to close down a key industry for longer than necessary.
—Bloomberg