China deal to dig into US soy stocks as Trump pledges aid

Bloomberg

Donald Trump’s trade truce with China is expected to push American soybean stockpiles to the lowest since the trade war began.
But corn stocks are going in the opposite direction, ballooning to the highest in three decades. And the president’s hints for more farmer aid could make the disconnect between the two even more pronounced.
Soybean reserves will fall 25% in the coming season to the lowest since 2016-17, the US Department of Agriculture forecast at its outlook forum in Arlington, Virginia. Higher exports, especially to top importer China, will add to increased domestic demand to eat up stocks.
“If our formally targeted farmers need additional aid until such time as the trade deals with china, Mexico, Canada and others fully kick in, that aid will be provided by the federal government, paid for out of the massive tariff money coming into the USA!,” Donald Trump tweeted.
“Increasing global import demand, particularly for China, and a recovery in US market share will support higher soybean exports following a sharp decline over the past two years,” the USDA said in a report.
Stockpiles will fall to 320 million bushels at the end of the 2020-21 season, surprising analysts who had expected the figure to come in between 328 million to 825 million, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Meanwhile, the government forecast corn inventories will jump about 29% to 2.637 billion bushels as farmers plant more. That would be the highest in 33 years.
Current prices and yield prospects have increased bets that farmers will sow the yellow grain over the oilseed. The USDA said corn plantings would likely climb to the highest in four years. While soybean acres should also rise, they are projected to stay below pre-trade war levels.
What’s more, Trump surprised the markets by raising the possibility of delivering more aid to American farmers as promised purchases from trade deals with China and other countries have yet to
materialise.
Even the suggestion of more bailout money — after the government pledged $28 billion over the past two years — could end up distorting planting decisions.
In 2019, farmers had to sow a crop in order to qualify for aid. Anticipation for further government payments could spark some growers to seed where they might not have otherwise.
Grain prices fell after Trump’s tweet that floated the aid possibility. May corn futures fell 0.5% to settle at $3.80 3/4 a bushel in Chicago. Soybeans erased earlier gains and fell 0.2% to $8.99 a bushel. Even wheat prices dropped 1.3% to $5.52 a bushel on the news.
“That raised fears of overproduction,” Arlan Suderman, INTL FCStone’s chief commodities economist, said by phone.
Earlier in the day, prices rose after the USDA said American plantings of all varieties are expected to slump to a record low and reserves were forecast to shrink.
But the allure of aid could throw all those numbers back into question.
“The farmer will plant like crazy,” Joe Davis, a director at brokerage Futures International, said in a message. “Trump is almost wanting the farmer to be happy and plant.”