With Trump’s blessing, Japan aims to mend ties with Iran

Bloomberg

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, a rare friend of both President Donald Trump and Iran’s leaders, set off for Tehran with the daunting task of bridging a divide that could plunge the region into renewed chaos.
Abe’s visit comes as the US has given scant indication it’s ready to ease sanctions it reimposed after abandoning a 2015 accord meant to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. Before he arrived, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said his country will tell the Japanese leader it expects the US to stop waging an “economic war” against it.
Tehran will also ask Abe to mediate an easing of US oil sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy, Reuters reported, citing an unidentified official.
With the two sides so far apart, any step that reduces mistrust and hostility would be a welcome achievement for Abe, seen more as a stable hand running the world’s third-largest economy than a globe-trotting peace negotiator. Trump sanctioned the trip, which would be the first by a sitting Japanese prime minister to Iran in 41 years and includes talks with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president Hassan Rouhani.
“What Abe can do depends on what Trump has given Abe,” said Kazuo Takahashi, professor of International Politics at the Open University of Japan, who specialises in Japanese policy towards Iran. “If he is going as a messenger boy, he is shaming himself in front of the world’s public opinion. I don’t think he’d take such a political risk without some ideas of inducement for the Iranians offered by the Americans.”
Abe, who spoke to Trump by telephone just ahead of his trip, told reporters before boarding his plane to Tehran that he plans to have a frank exchange of views with Iran’s leader.
The Japanese leader wades into the fray as the Trump administration appears ready to add new sanctions, this time against the economic lifeline Iran and European leaders created to allow trade to continue with European countries that have remained in the accord.
“I don’t think he will be able to re-start talks between the US and Iran, or get the US to soften its line on sanctions or Iran to accept some of the US demands. It won’t be anything like that,” an energy expert with ties to the Abe government said.
Abe will listen to the Iranian leadership’s requests and convey US thinking to them, which will maintain the dialogue regarding the nuclear agreement, said the expert, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the visit.
While Japan has maintained good ties with Iran for decades and called for Tehran to abide by the nuclear deal, its pro-US stance could mean Abe’s offerings are received with caution.
The Japanese public isn’t expecting much of the visit, an opinion poll from public broadcaster NHK showed, reducing the political risks for Abe.
The visit does increase his global exposure ahead of an upper house election planned for July and Japan hosting the Group of 20 leaders summit in late June.
His father, former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, also tried his hand — unsuccessfully — at defusing the tensions with a visit to Iran in 1983. He met then-President Khamenei, who would eventually be promoted to the clerical hierarchy and the mantle of the Supreme Leader.
“Politically, we never had a huge issue with the Iranian government, neither pre- nor post the revolutionary period in Iran. Our economic ties have been stranded, I would say,
because of pressure from Washington,” said Koichiro Tanaka, president of the Japanese Institute of Middle East Economies in Tokyo.