N-weapons: America’s arsenal needs an update

More than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, nuclear war may be something to worry about. At the moment, tensions between India and Pakistan, North Korea’s small arsenal, Iran’s nuclear program, and the US withdrawal from its treaty with Russia on intermediate-range nuclear missiles are all roiling the status quo of global security.
But the US can best prepare for the next nuclear age by sticking with the two-pronged strategy that worked so well during the Cold War: deterrence combined with arms control. That means pursuing two seemingly contradictory goals: seeking to shrink the number of nuclear weapons around the globe, while simultaneously maintaining and improving a nuclear arsenal potent enough to dissuade adversaries from doing anything stupid.
The difference is that there are now three great powers involved. The US needs to modernise its arsenal to counter rising threats from China and Russia, and pursue arms-control treaties with them both.
On the diplomatic side, President Trump should welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to extend the New START agreement, which drastically reduced overall US and Russian arsenals but is set to expire in 2021. Eventually, China should be persuaded to join the pact. Though still well below the START limits, its arsenal is growing. And the US should seek to renegotiate the abandoned Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty as a trilateral pact that also includes Beijing.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has much work to do to modernise its own nuclear-weapons systems. The military was helpfully promised upwards of $1 trillion over 30 years for the project.
At the same time, the Pentagon needs to upgrade the weapons themselves, placing a new emphasis on its stockpile of less-powerful tactical weapons that can be “dialed down” to lower yields. The enemy is more likely to fear that the US will really use an atomic weapon if it is not as destructive as the one dropped on Hiroshima.
The Pentagon also needs to catch up with Russia, China in developing hypersonic glide missiles that can evade ground defenses after re-entering atmosphere, and to work on missile defenses capable of destroying enemy vehicles at launch rather than in mid-course. To develop such a deterrent, the US will first have to build a vast network of space-based detectors and greatly expand research on high-energy lasers.
Deterrence can be grim business, in that it involves building more deadly nuclear capacity. But this strategy has helped avert nuclear war between superpowers for decades. A 21st-century reboot should aim to do the same.
—Bloomberg