Russian euphoria at US retreats tinged with doubts

Bloomberg

It seemed like a dream come true for Vladimir Putin when Donald Trump ordered US withdrawals from key global hotspots, prompting one of the administration’s toughest Russia hawks to tender his resignation. Now the Kremlin isn’t so sure.
Having gained more policy victories from Trump in 24 hours than in the whole of his presidency to date, Putin’s voiced caution on whether the US leader will follow through on pledges to cut forces in Syria and Afghanistan, while Kremlin officials have begun to worry whether Russia will have to fill the vacuum if US troops do leave.
Trump’s decision to recall all troops from Syria and halve the number deployed in Afghanistan triggered the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, seen by many US allies as the last restraining influence on the president’s “America First” policies.
While the Kremlin contained any public jubilation, there have been hints of unease. “When stability and predictability give way to unpredictability, surprise and, shall we say, a certain chaotic nature in various decisions, that of course is a cause for discomfort and concern,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said.
Putin, who’s long demanded a US withdrawal from Syria, called Trump’s decision the “right thing to do.”
While there’s a widespread sense of disbelief in Moscow at the Kremlin’s good fortune, some officials also worry that, if it goes ahead, the reduction of US forces in Afghanistan may leave Russia to inherit a conflict from its former Cold War rival that contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse.
“I’m not not sure whether the Russian leadership really welcomes all this,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organisation set up by the Kremlin.
“It puts more responsibility on Russia’s shoulders and raises the cost of any failure. The US presence was a stabilising factor. Now, as they say in America: ‘you break it, you own it.’’’
Putin has been ratcheting up Russia’s global role following his successful military intervention in Syria in 2015 that turned the war in President Bashar al-Assad’s favour against US-backed militants. He’s followed up with a push into Africa, including grabbing a role as a key power broker in Libya.
In Afghanistan, the Kremlin is courting the resurgent Taliban as the Western-backed government in Kabul weakens.
Mattis’s resignation is a “positive” development, said Konstantin Kosachyov, chairman of the international affairs committee in the upper house of Russia’s parliament.
Trump’s move to withdraw the 2,000 US troops in northeastern Syria, where they supported Kurdish-led forces, was staunchly opposed by his security advisers including Mattis and leaves Russia in the driving seat.
In Afghanistan, the US plans to pull out 7,000 of its 14,000 troops, according to a US defense official.
These steps, along with Mattis’ departure, represent a rejection of the traditional American view of projecting power all over the world, said Oleg Morozov, a Russian lawmaker and former senior Kremlin official. “Putin is victorious here in the sense that he offered a more effective strategy,” he said.