Global economic growth faces growing threats

Bloomberg

Global economic growth is less synchronized and faces increasing threats, including from trade tensions, according to a draft statement from the Group of 20 leading economies obtained by Bloomberg News.
“Downside risks over the short and medium term have increased,” said the document. A final version of the statement will be published on Sunday.
Among the other risks to global growth, the text cites “rising financial vulnerabilities, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, global imbalances, inequality.” The G-20’s March statement didn’t exclusively mention trade tensions.
While emerging markets are better prepared, they still face market volatility and possible capital outflows, the draft says. Pledges made by G-20 member nations in their March statement to refrain from competitive devaluations were removed from the draft statement. According to Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau the issue didn’t come up on Saturday.
The finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the 20 largest economies have been meeting in the Argentine capital this weekend. US President Donald Trump had raised the prospects of an intense debate last week with his tweets on trade and currency that accused the European Union and China of weakening their currencies to obtain trade benefits.
Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison said Trump had an unconventional but understandable approach to push for free trade.
“There are some grievances that have been around for a decade, Morrison said in an interview with Bloomberg News at the G-20 summit. “There is legitimate frustration about the failure of the system to resolve the issues that concern the US and others.”

Trump targeted by G-20 leaders
Bloomberg

Global economic leaders are pushing back against US President Donald Trump’s latest rants on global trade and currencies, speaking out against higher tariffs while backing central bank independence.
Officials from Germany to Japan and South Africa at the Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers in Buenos Aires rejected Trump’s unilateral stance, while working to build consensus on a final communique that would avoid upsetting Washington. G-20 members traditionally cap their meetings with a communique that summarizes key policy recommendations.
The US president’s fiery rhetoric is more than just a threat and has begun to impact the real economy, said South African Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Daniel Mminele.
“The mere talking about it, the ratcheting up of the rhetoric does affect confidence, does create uncertainty, and will already have influenced behaviour even before the first shot was fired,” Mminele said in an interview in Buenos Aires.

Trade War
Trump last week threatened to deepen the trade war with China by slapping tariffs on just about all of its exports to America, while blasting currency policies in China and Europe and criticizing monetary policy at home. Treasury yields on Friday climbed the most since May following the president’s remarks, and the dollar weakened the most since March.
Speaking to reporters on the sideline of the summit, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin elaborated on the president’s remarks, saying Trump fully supports Federal Reserve independence and isn’t trying to interfere in foreign-exchange markets.
But Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz was categorical in rejecting Trump’s claims that Europeans game their currency. “The European Union carries out very rational policies, which are not geared at artificially creating economic successes through currency levels,” he told reporters.
And Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda didn’t share Trump’s frustration with rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar, saying they reflect a solid economy.
“For the US economy and the global economy, that is not a negative,” he said.
Indeed, allowing the Fed to pursue its own monetary policy is essential, said Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund.
“Independence is key,” Lagarde told reporters in Buenos Aires. “We always value the independence of central banks.”